While Africa is home to some of the world’s most dynamic and rapidly growing economies, malaria remains a persistent challenge. A handful of countries have successfully eliminated the disease, with Mauritius achieving malaria-free status in 1973, Lesotho in 2012, Algeria in 2019, Cabo Verde in 2024, Egypt in 2024 and Seychelles having long been free of malaria. Yet, for the majority of the continent, malaria continues to exact a devastating toll, costing Africa an estimated $12 billion annually in lost productivity, healthcare costs, and diminished foreign investment. These losses, often referred to as the “malaria tax,” stifle economic growth, hinder industrial productivity, and threaten Africa’s capacity to fully harness its human and natural resources.
The toll of malaria extends beyond the immediate health impact. Economists argue that endemic malaria stifles innovation, deters foreign investment, and diminishes returns on business operations. The Corporate Council on Africa has highlighted that malaria can reduce returns by as much as 1.3% of GDP annually in severely affected regions, undermining the continent’s ability to capitalise on its natural and human resources.
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The consequences of malaria are most acutely felt in the workforce. Adults suffering from the disease or caring for sick family members frequently take leave, diminishing productivity. According to Malaria No More, 72% of companies in sub-Saharan Africa reported that malaria negatively impacted operations, with 39% describing this effect as severe. Beyond reduced output, businesses incur higher operational costs, facing both the direct costs of healthcare and the indirect costs associated with delayed projects and reduced efficiency.
However, the economic story does not end in loss. Strategic interventions in malaria control offer enormous economic upside. Malaria No More and Corporate Council on Africa’s report asserts that every dollar invested by the United States in malaria control in Africa generates $5.80 in economic growth, outperforming many traditional investments in capital markets. This positions malaria control as not merely a humanitarian priority but a high-return economic opportunity for governments, investors, and communities.
The report underscores the interplay between health outcomes and trade. For instance, malaria control efforts have already contributed to a $90.3 billion increase in GDP in recipient countries, expanding import demand and enlarging markets for international goods and services. Countries with robust malaria control also attract 16% more foreign direct investment than endemic regions, signalling that better health directly translates into stronger economic confidence.
As Africa is projected to be home to one in four people globally by 2050, consumer and business spending is expected to reach more than $16 trillion, according to Malaria No More. Failing to address malaria would represent not only a missed health opportunity but a significant barrier to Africa’s emergence as a global economic powerhouse.
IMF Projections and the Fragility of Recovery
The IMF projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to remain at 4.1% in 2025 and rise to 4.4% in 2026, reflecting a modest but fragile recovery from the economic shocks of recent years. While structural reforms, fiscal prudence, and investment in key sectors are essential to sustaining this growth, the IMF notes that persistent health challenges, including malaria, threaten to undermine progress. Endemic disease translates into lower labour productivity, increased public health expenditures, and diminished investment inflows, all of which compromise long-term economic development.
This underscores the urgency of integrating malaria control into broader economic planning. By investing strategically in health, governments can not only prevent deaths but also unlock GDP gains, enhance trade, and create a more resilient economic foundation.
Quantifying Opportunity
The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that achieving a 90% reduction in malaria incidence by 2030 could avert 600,000 deaths annually and raise Africa’s GDP by $126.9 billion, roughly $16 billion per year. Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, stands to gain $35 billion, while international trade could increase by $80.7 billion by 2030. These figures reveal the profound economic ripple effects of effective malaria control.
This so-called “malaria dividend” illustrates a simple principle: healthier populations are more productive, more economically active, and more capable of sustaining both private enterprise and public service delivery. The potential gains are not theoretical. Between 2000 and 2022, malaria interventions prevented 2.1 billion cases and 11.7 million deaths, demonstrating that sustained, coordinated efforts can deliver tangible results.
Investment and Partnerships
Addressing malaria requires strategic investment and collaborative approaches. Public health financing must be prioritised, with robust support for initiatives such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria and the U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI). Evidence suggests that each government dollar spent in de-risking malaria investments encourages $3 to $5 in private sector co-investment, highlighting the multiplier effect of strategic funding.
Strengthening healthcare systems is equally essential. Investments in diagnostic capacity, workforce development, and next-generation interventions such as new vaccines and insecticide-treated bed nets are critical for reducing malaria incidence. In addition, public-private partnerships can accelerate progress, leveraging the efficiency of private enterprise alongside the reach of government programmes. Such collaboration ensures that health gains are sustainable and economically reinforcing.
Malaria is both a humanitarian challenge and an economic one. Its prevention and elimination demand coordinated action across governments, international partners, and private actors. With Africa facing the prospect of losing billions in GDP annually, ignoring malaria is not merely a public health oversight, it is an economic miscalculation of continental proportions.
The evidence is compelling: malaria control improves workforce productivity, increases foreign investment, and strengthens overall economic resilience. By prioritising malaria elimination, African nations can secure both the health and economic well-being of their populations, while positioning themselves as dynamic, attractive partners in the global economy.
Investing in Africa’s Future
Malaria remains a formidable obstacle, but it is one that can be overcome with strategic investment, innovative solutions, and sustained commitment. Achieving the WHO’s malaria reduction goals offers not only the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives each year but also to unlock $126.9 billion in GDP, catalyse trade, and enhance investment prospects.
In this light, malaria control is both a moral duty and an economic strategy. The $12 billion annual loss in GDP to malaria serves as a stark reminder that health and prosperity are inseparable. By acting decisively, Africa can turn the tide against malaria, transforming a persistent economic drain into a foundation for sustainable growth, resilience, and continental empowerment.
