In 2025, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) recorded meaningful shifts in its macroeconomic trajectory, with inflation falling below the community’s convergence threshold for the first time in several years. As of the end of the third quarter, inflation in the six-member bloc dropped to 2.8 per cent below the community’s target ceiling of 3 per cent, signalling notable progress in price stability after periods of elevated costs driven by external shocks.
This inflection represents both the potential for deeper economic stabilisation within Central Africa and a reminder of the structural vulnerabilities that continue to shape the region’s fortunes. In a global context marked by moderating commodity prices, shifting supply chain dynamics, and cautious monetary policy adjustments, CEMAC’s experience in 2025 reflects broader economic trends while remaining shaped by its unique institutional and structural constraints.
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The decline in inflation stands out as the most significant macroeconomic highlight for CEMAC in 2025. According to official regional data released at the end of December, the sub-regional inflation rate fell from 4.3 per cent the previous year to 2.8 per cent by September, with an annualised figure of 1.4 per cent compared with the same period in 2024.
This improvement can be traced to a combination of external and internal factors. International shipping costs, which spiked during global supply chain disruptions in 2024, have eased, lowering the cost of imported goods. Energy prices also receded from heightened levels seen in the previous year, dampening imported inflationary pressures. Domestically, improved agricultural output in several member states, including Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Cameroon, helped restrain food price increases, particularly in staple goods.
Nonetheless, persistent challenges remain. The appreciation of the Nigerian naira during 2025 raised import costs for several CEMAC trading partners, particularly for countries heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Continued logistical bottlenecks and security-related disruptions also constrained supply chains in parts of the region, limiting the pace at which inflationary pressures could ease.
As inflation moved below the convergence threshold, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) recalibrated its monetary stance. Rather than pivoting aggressively towards expansion, the central bank tightened credit conditions to protect foreign exchange reserves and preserve external stability. Toward the end of 2025, BEAC increased its key policy rate from 4.50 per cent to 4.75 per cent, while the marginal lending facility rate was raised from 6.00 per cent to 6.25 per cent.
This cautious stance reflects mounting concern over declining reserve buffers. Foreign exchange reserves across the bloc are projected to fall by about 2.6 per cent year-on-year to approximately CFA 6,377.3 billion by the close of 2025, equivalent to roughly 4.2 months of import cover, compared with 4.9 months a year earlier. These levels remain below the comfort threshold generally viewed as adequate for external resilience.
The tightening of credit aims to slow import-driven demand and ease pressure on reserves. However, it also carries implications for domestic financing conditions, as higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on private sector investment, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises that already face limited access to long-term credit.
Economic growth across CEMAC continues to reflect divergent national trajectories. Regional output expanded by approximately 3.0 per cent in 2024, up from 2.0 per cent the previous year, supported by stronger performance in agriculture, services and selective recovery in extractive industries. Cameroon, for instance, benefited from stronger activity in trade and services, while Chad and Congo recorded gains linked to agricultural output and public investment.
Looking ahead, growth is projected to moderate in 2025, easing to around 2.4 per cent. This deceleration reflects tighter financial conditions, weaker external demand and subdued investment flows. It also highlights the region’s continued exposure to global volatility, particularly in commodity markets that remain central to fiscal and external balances.
In contrast, global economic growth in 2025 is projected at just above 3 per cent, underpinned by resilient consumption in advanced economies and gradual stabilisation in global trade. The divergence underscores the extent to which structural rigidities and limited diversification continue to constrain CEMAC’s capacity to fully benefit from favourable global cycles.
External Accounts under Strain and the Question of Reserves
One of the most persistent vulnerabilities in the CEMAC framework remains the external sector. Although inflation has eased, foreign exchange inflows have not strengthened sufficiently to rebuild reserve buffers at a comfortable pace. Repatriation of export proceeds, particularly from extractive industries, remains incomplete, with only about 35 per cent of foreign currency earnings reportedly returned through official channels.
This shortfall has significant implications. Export receipts are a primary source of reserve accumulation, and limited compliance weakens the central bank’s ability to stabilise the currency and finance imports. In addition, financial operations undertaken by some member states have placed further strain on reserves. Gabon’s early repayment of a Eurobond in late 2024, alongside debt reprofiling efforts in the Republic of Congo, reduced external liquidity and heightened concerns over sovereign exposure in domestic banking systems.
These developments underline the delicate balance facing policymakers: supporting government financing needs while safeguarding monetary stability and reserve adequacy.
Beyond short-term macroeconomic indicators, deeper structural issues continue to shape CEMAC’s economic outlook. Heavy dependence on hydrocarbons exposes the region to commodity price swings, while limited diversification constrains productivity growth and job creation. Financial intermediation remains shallow, and access to credit for the private sector is uneven across member states.
Public finance pressures also persist. Although fiscal positions improved slightly in some countries, rising debt servicing costs have increased vulnerability. Interest payments now absorb a growing share of government revenues, narrowing fiscal space for social spending and development investment. These pressures highlight the importance of stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, improved public financial management and more disciplined borrowing strategies.
At the regional level, efforts to strengthen economic governance and coordination remain central. Enhanced surveillance mechanisms, improved data transparency and closer alignment of national policies with regional commitments are increasingly viewed as essential for restoring confidence and ensuring policy credibility.
Looking Ahead: Stability as a Foundation, Not a Destination
CEMAC’s economic performance in 2025 reflects a cautious stabilisation rather than a full recovery. The return of inflation to below the convergence threshold marks an important milestone, signalling that policy coordination and external conditions have begun to align more favourably. Yet stability alone will not guarantee durable prosperity.
The path ahead requires translating macroeconomic discipline into structural transformation. That means expanding productive capacity beyond hydrocarbons, strengthening institutions, deepening regional markets and improving the investment climate. It also calls for sustained engagement with international partners to support reforms, manage debt vulnerabilities and reinforce financial resilience.
In a global environment marked by uncertainty and shifting economic alliances, CEMAC stands at a delicate but defining juncture. Whether the gains of 2025 become a foundation for long-term progress will depend on the region’s ability to move from stabilisation to strategy, from managing risks to unlocking lasting growth.
