Uganda’s export performance in October 2025 came with a lot of positivity as merchant goods export earnings nearly doubled year-on-year, climbing to $1.5 billion from $769.6 million in October 2024, driven primarily by a remarkable boom in coffee, gold, and cocoa revenues. In an economy historically anchored in agriculture and services, this shift presents both a structural rebalancing toward commodity-led export growth and the unfolding potential of Uganda’s emergent oil and gas sector. With macroeconomic stability, strategic land routes to regional markets, and sustained global demand, Uganda is using its natural endowments to transform its balance of payments, attract investment, and accelerate long-term economic diversification.
Uganda has long been one of Africa’s top coffee producers, but the scale of recent earnings is extraordinary. Over the 12 months ending October 2025, coffee exports reached a historic $2.4 billion, reflecting higher global prices, strong production volumes, and expanded market reach. Meanwhile, gold export receipts tripled to nearly $964.6 million in October 2025 relative to the same month in 2024, driven by a global rally in gold prices that saw bullion near all-time highs above $3,900/oz amid safe-haven demand and expectations of global rate cuts. Cocoa exports, while smaller in absolute terms, also provided solid foreign exchange inflows as global demand for chocolate and cocoa derivatives strengthened in 2025.
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Collectively, these commodities reshaped Uganda’s export profile. Beyond the sheer volume increases, the key dynamic is value capture: higher global prices and improved marketing are translating directly into foreign exchange, stabilising the Uganda shilling and underpinning fiscal revenue. According to the latest Bank of Uganda data, these export inflows have also contributed to smoother price dynamics in fuel and consumer staples by strengthening Uganda’s import capacity.
Uganda’s economy has sustained robust growth trends. In nominal terms, GDP is projected at approximately $65 billion in 2025, with real growth rates hovering around 6–7%, outperforming many regional peers. While the economy has traditionally been driven by agriculture, services, and public infrastructure investment, export earnings from coffee, gold, and cocoa are increasingly significant: Coffee, gold, and cocoa are pivotal to the economy: coffee significantly boosts agricultural GDP and foreign exchange earnings while underpinning rural incomes and export logistics; gold serves as a crucial hard-currency anchor, providing stability during external economic pressures; and cocoa diversifies agricultural exports and promotes value-added agro-processing industries.
Together, these commodities now play complementary roles in stabilising the current account, supporting fiscal revenue through taxes and royalties, and attracting investment into upstream value chains (storage, processing, logistics). They also work synergistically with emerging sectors like oil and gas infrastructure, suggesting a transition toward broad-based export-led growth.
Uganda’s export trajectory has deep roots. During the colonial era and early post-independence period (1960s–1970s), agricultural exports, especially coffee, cotton, and tea, dominated earnings and GDP contributions. However, political instability in the 1970s and economic mismanagement in the 1980s disrupted growth and eroded export performance.
Reforms in the late 1980s under the National Resistance Movement (NRM) restored macro stability and encouraged private sector participation. Trade liberalisation, currency reform, and liberal agricultural policies rekindled export sectors, yet the export base remained narrow.
Gold emerged as a major export in the early 2010s as miners expanded operations and global bullion prices climbed. Meanwhile, cocoa and other non-traditional exports have gained traction due to improved agronomy, quality certification programs, and access to premium markets.
The recent discovery and development of oil in the Albertine Graben (mid-2000s) added a new chapter. While commercial oil production is only just emerging, investments in associated infrastructure, pipelines, refining capacity, and export corridors signal a future where oil may sit alongside coffee, gold, and cocoa as core contributors.
Uganda’s recent export performance has positioned it competitively within East Africa. While Kenya continues to dominate horticulture and tea exports, Uganda’s sharp rise in coffee volumes and earnings has exceeded expectations. Tanzania also benefits from strong gold exports, but Uganda’s more coordinated export strategy, supported by stable fiscal and monetary policy, has delivered faster export earnings growth in key months of 2025. Ethiopia retains deep coffee credentials, yet Uganda’s combination of higher volumes and stronger pricing has made it one of Africa’s most dynamic coffee exporters in recent data cycles. This outperformance reflects Uganda’s ability to align macroeconomic management with targeted sector incentives, while strengthening export infrastructure and compliance with international standards such as the EU’s deforestation-free product regulations, helping preserve access to premium markets.
Despite this development, structural vulnerabilities remain. Heavy reliance on global coffee and gold prices exposes export revenues to external shocks, while the export base remains relatively narrow despite gains in cocoa. Infrastructure bottlenecks in transport and storage continue to raise costs and constrain competitiveness, and limited value addition means much of the export income is still tied to unprocessed or lightly processed commodities. The emerging oil sector introduces additional risks, including execution challenges and financing pressures, requiring careful coordination with existing export industries. At the same time, compliance with evolving global trade standards imposes costs and capacity demands that not all producers can easily absorb.
This export surge opens clear strategic opportunities. Scaling up agro-processing and mineral beneficiation could significantly boost earnings, jobs, and industrial depth. The country’s geographic position offers potential to become a regional hub for processed goods, logistics, and eventually energy exports as oil production comes on stream. Diversifying into services such as tourism, fintech, and renewables could further reduce commodity dependence, while sustained investment in compliance and market access would help secure long-term price premiums. If these pathways are executed with discipline, Uganda’s current export upswing could mark a lasting shift toward a more resilient, diversified, and transformation-driven economy.
