Recently, African petroleum regulators under Nigeria’s leadership have launched a continental forum to harmonise oil regulation, aiming to draw critical investment into the region’s rapidly growing energy sector. Yet, signing agreements is one thing; honouring their terms with full commitment is another.
First proposed by Engr. Gbenga Komolafe in 2023, the African Petroleum Regulators Forum (AFRIPERF) seeks to reinforce governance and standardisation in Africa’s petroleum domain. After three preparatory meetings, the fourth gathering resulted in a formal charter. Komolafe, acting as interim chair, characterised this moment as a turning point in constructing a harmonised and sustainable petroleum industry in Africa. Facing a decline in investment dollars, regulators on the continent are betting that consistency and transparency in regulation across national borders can unlock new capital.
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The global energy sector in 2024–2025 is marked by paradox: demand for oil remains robust in many regions, even as capital increasingly shifts toward cleaner technologies. According to the IEA Oil Market Report, global oil demand is projected to rise by 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026, reaching 104.4 mb/d.
On the supply side, global oil production was largely unchanged in July at 105.6 mb/d. A 230 kb/d decline in OPEC+ output was offset by an equivalent increase from non-OPEC+ producers. Higher OPEC+ targets announced for September are expected to boost global oil supply growth to 2.5 mb/d in 2025 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026, with non-OPEC+ accounting for 1.3 mb/d and 1 mb/d, respectively. Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude has remained above USD $80 per barrel in recent months, buoyed by demand from Asia and resilient markets in North America.
For Africa, these global metrics matter deeply: oil and gas investments are increasingly risk-sensitive. Investors assess not only reserves, but regulatory certainty, environmental compliance, governance quality and clarity over fiscal regimes. Projects delayed by legal ambiguity or unclear oversight are often passed over in favour of more predictable environments. Capital is no longer content to pay lip service to regulation; it demands enforceability.
What Has Just Unfolded
In September 2025, during the Africa Oil Week in Accra, regulators from sixteen African countries gathered to sign or endorse the charter establishing AFRIPERF. Eight of those nations formally signed: Nigeria, Ghana, Somalia, Gambia, Madagascar, Sudan, Guinea and Togo. Seven others committed to support subject to further domestic processes.
The charter defines several aims: harmonising petroleum regulation, improving operational safety, enhancing environmental protection, promoting transparency, encouraging capacity building through knowledge and technology sharing, and facilitating cooperation on cross-border issues such as gas trade, emissions regulation and digitalisation. Governance structures have been set: an Executive Committee consisting of heads of national regulators, a Technical Committee of field experts, and a rotating Secretariat. Elections are expected soon to determine a permanent chair and the location of AFRIPERF’s headquarters.
What the Harmonisation Could Unleash
Unified regulatory frameworks have the power to transform Africa’s oil sector. First, they reduce risk. When regulations, safety and environmental standards, licensing procedures, and fiscal terms are more predictable and aligned across countries, investors can more confidently commit capital, scale operations across borders, and plan long-term. Harmonisation can also reduce project delays due to regulatory approvals, environmental permitting or legal challenges that differ significantly from one country to another.
Secondly, environmental stewardship and climate alignment are increasingly important to global financiers. Emissions controls, gas-flaring limits, methane management, and transparent reporting are no longer optional. AFRIPERF promises to create a platform for common standards in these areas, which could open access to green finance, carbon markets, and investors focused on ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance).
Thirdly, integrated regulation across borders offers efficiencies in infrastructure (pipelines, shared basins, cross-border gas trade), in joint environmental management (especially offshore or in ecosystems that cross national boundaries), and in digitalisation of regulatory functions (monitoring, data sharing, enforcement).
Africa remains a significant contributor to global supply: projections from the African Energy Chamber estimate that Africa will continue to supply around 8 per cent of global oil, with production in Africa possibly rising from approximately 6.5 million barrels per day to nearly 7 million bpd by end of 2025.
Nigeria is not standing on the sidelines either. In 2025, ExxonMobil announced plans to invest USD 1.5 billion in deepwater operations, particularly the Usan field in the Niger Delta, under regulatory frameworks that emphasise environmental safeguards and local community responsibilities.
Risks and Barriers to Success
Despite the optimistic outlines, several challenges loom that could prevent AFRIPERF’s aims being realised. Signatory countries differ widely in institutional capacity. Some regulatory agencies are weak, underfunded or lack technical expertise; others engage with overlapping mandates or struggle with corruption and political interference. Without capacity building and funding, harmonisation becomes theoretical rather than practical.
Another issue concerns balancing global sustainability demands with domestic development imperatives. Nations rich in hydrocarbons often depend on them for revenue and employment. Strong environmental or emissions regulations might be welcomed internationally, but domestically may face resistance if perceived to slow investment, limit output or interfere with fiscal income.
Legal harmonisation is another heavy lift. Even among countries that have signed the charter, domestic law must be changed or adapted, regulatory statutes, health and safety rules, environmental law, tax and royalty regimes, licensing procedures, and enforcement mechanisms. Each of these areas involves entrenched interests, sometimes strong opposition, and often cumbersome bureaucratic processes.
The financial climate is also less forgiving than before. Global financial institutions are imposing stricter conditions for funding fossil fuel projects. Some have withdrawn entirely from supporting new oil explorations unless significant climate mitigation plans are in place. This raises the bar for African oil and gas projects. Delays, cost overruns, or regulatory uncertainty can deter or increase the cost of capital.
Can Nigeria Lead the Charge?
Nigeria appears to recognise the stakes. Under the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) led by Komolafe, licensing in 2025 is already conditioned on requirements such as low carbon emissions and methane management. Such conditions suggest that Nigeria is aligning its domestic regulatory framework with what AFRIPERF aims to standardise.
Nigeria has also shown the ability to negotiate major deals under its evolving framework, including the deepwater contract with TotalEnergies and local partners for two offshore blocks in the Niger Delta in its 2024 licensing round. This suggests regulatory attractiveness is being leveraged in practice.
However, leadership will need to extend beyond ambition into consistency, transparency, and enforcement. If guidelines are tight but enforcement lax, or if regulatory promises are undermined by political shifts or local opposition, the momentum may falter.
What Must Align for AFRIPERF to Deliver
To move from charter to impact, several conditions must be satisfied: Domestic reform and implementation must follow quickly. Signatories must not merely ratify the charter; they must adapt laws, equip regulatory bodies, train personnel, and ensure budgetary allocations for implementing changes.
Oversight and accountability must be strong. The Technical Committee must have clear powers to monitor compliance; the Secretariat must be independent and transparent; mechanisms for peer review, dispute resolution, and public reporting should be built in.
Standards must be specific and internationally credible. Harmonisation should include emissions limits, safety protocols, environmental impact assessments, gas flare reductions, digital reporting, and stakeholder consultation procedures. Aligning with global norms in climate policy and ESG will strengthen credibility and investor confidence.
Funding and capacity building must be secured, likely through international partnerships, donor funding, and technical cooperation. Countries with less capacity must be supported to bring their regulatory systems up to par.
Flexibility will be essential. Different countries are at different stages in regulatory maturity and economic dependency on oil. Implementation timelines may need to vary, allowing for phased adoption so that weaker regulators are not overwhelmed and stronger ones are not held back.
Political stability and legal entrenchment will help ensure that reforms survive changes in leadership or shifts in domestic politics. Embedding regulations in law, not just policy, will reduce risks of reversal.
From Promise to Legacy
AFRIPERF represents one of the most significant regulatory experiments in Africa’s oil sector in recent history. It is more than a symbolic gesture: if implemented with seriousness and coherence, it has the potential to foster investor confidence, align Africa’s petroleum regulation with global expectations, bolster environmental protection, and improve overall efficiency.
Nigeria’s leadership is promising, and the participation of multiple countries suggests the idea has resonance. But real success will be judged in the months and years to come, not by how many signed, but by how many delivered: laws amended, permits issued swiftly, emissions reduced, investors reassured.
In the end, the unified oil regulations will work only to the extent that vision is matched by persistent action. If that happens, this moment may be remembered as the dawn of a new era for Africa’s petroleum industry, one shaped by coherence, accountability, and shared prosperity rather than fragmentation, uncertainty, and unfulfilled promise.
