On November 3, 2025, Angola’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG) will seal an exclusive negotiation agreement with energy giant Shell to explore and develop Blocks 19, 34, and 35, as well as several ultra-deepwater fields. This deal marks Shell’s first return to Angola in 20 years, a symbolic comeback that speaks volumes about the nation’s renewed attractiveness to global investors. Beyond the technicalities of exploration and drilling, this partnership signals a turning point: a confident Angola, reforming, refining, and ready to reclaim its place at the centre of Africa’s energy narrative.
Once the continent’s oil powerhouse alongside Nigeria, Angola produced nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008. But years of underinvestment, maturing fields, and governance challenges saw production dwindle to about 1.03 million bpd by early 2025. To halt the slide, the government restructured the sector, empowering the ANPG as a professional regulator and launching a 2019–2025 licensing strategy to attract global majors. Of the 60 planned concessions, over 50 have already been awarded, bolstered by the 2024 Incremental Production Decree, which provides fiscal incentives for operators reviving mature assets. These policy pivots laid the groundwork for Shell’s re-entry, not as a rescue mission, but as validation that Angola’s petroleum reforms are working.
READ ALSO: Angola’s Economic Diversification: Opportunities Beyond Oil
Today, Angola sits on an estimated 9 billion barrels of proven crude reserves and 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Oil contributes roughly 75% of government revenue, making it the backbone of national stability. The upstream market, valued at USD 4.64 billion in 2025, is projected to grow to USD 5.1 billion by 2030. Meanwhile, the Cabinda Refinery, the nation’s first in nearly five decades, is set to begin operations before the end of 2025, adding 30,000 barrels per day to domestic refining capacity. Alongside this, projects like the Sanha Lean Gas Connection and the New Gas Consortium’s Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields are expanding output toward 300 MMSCFD, fortifying Angola’s bid for energy diversification and resilience.
Shell’s comeback is a powerful symbol of restored confidence in Angola’s oil governance and market potential. Strategically, it opens new frontiers literally, as the oil major brings cutting-edge technology to ultra-deepwater exploration, particularly in Blocks 34 and 35, considered among the Atlantic’s most promising assets. For Angola, this partnership represents more than barrels and dollars; it’s about technical knowledge transfer, infrastructure upgrades, and energy system optimisation. Crucially, Shell’s re-engagement comes at a time when Angola, having exited OPEC in 2023, has regained autonomy over production levels. This flexibility allows the country to balance revenue targets with domestic priorities, free from the constraints of global output quotas.
Across Africa, energy strategies are in flux. Nigeria battles with pipeline insecurity and subsidy reform, Ghana courts offshore investors to stabilise its economy, and Namibia is fast emerging as the continent’s next frontier. Yet Angola’s approach stands apart. It has successfully blended regulatory transparency with a business-friendly investment climate while maintaining strategic control through Sonangol. The Cabinda Refinery, unlike the still-developing Dangote project in Nigeria, is structured under a phased, state-private financing model that prioritises efficiency and timeliness. This dual-track system of reform and realism has made Angola one of Africa’s most investable hydrocarbon markets in 2025.
Between 2025 and 2030, Angola expects over $60 billion in new upstream investment, not just from Shell but also from TotalEnergies, Chevron, and ExxonMobil. These funds will sustain thousands of jobs across exploration, logistics, and service industries. The Cabinda Refinery alone is forecasted to generate over 2,000 jobs and reduce Angola’s costly dependence on imported refined products. In the long term, increased refining capacity and local value addition could strengthen the country’s balance of payments and provide a fiscal cushion for broader economic diversification. The government’s push into biofuels, supported by ANPG’s renewable energy framework, further underscores Angola’s intent to participate meaningfully in the global energy transition.
Yet, even in this revival, challenges persist. Global market volatility, high inflation, and ongoing currency devaluation continue to strain fiscal stability. Dependence on IMF support limits policy flexibility, while the global shift toward clean energy exerts pressure to modernise without undermining revenue. Environmental risks and infrastructure bottlenecks also pose constraints. Regionally, competition is heating up, with Namibia, Mozambique, and Congo-Brazzaville aggressively courting similar investors. To stay competitive, Angola must double down on operational efficiency, local content development, and environmental accountability.
Angola’s oil resurgence carries implications that extend well beyond its borders. As Africa’s second-largest crude producer, its recovery stabilises regional supply chains and strengthens investor confidence in the continent’s broader energy outlook. The Shell partnership illustrates how reform-driven governance can attract and retain global energy majors, a case study for peers like Uganda, Senegal, and Côte d’Ivoire. Angola’s Gas Master Plan, with its emphasis on monetisation and industrial integration, offers a model for transitioning African economies from crude exporters to integrated hydrocarbon producers.
Angola’s next chapter in energy will be defined by diversification. Deepwater expansion will remain pivotal, but new investments are already flowing into gas development, downstream industries, and clean energy alternatives. Biofuels and critical minerals like copper and cobalt are becoming part of Angola’s strategy to build an export-ready, low-carbon economy. With targeted policy support, these sectors could elevate Angola into a dual-energy powerhouse, one that bridges fossil and renewable futures.
