Nigeria’s annual inflation rate declined to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, extending the country’s disinflation streak to ten consecutive months and reinforcing a clear shift away from the acute price pressures that defined much of 2024 and early 2025. The latest figure represents a slight moderation from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, but more significantly, a sharp decline from 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
The data confirms that inflationary momentum is easing in a sustained manner rather than through temporary volatility. For policymakers, investors and households, the January reading signals a more stable pricing environment as the year begins.
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The most consequential development in the January report lies in food prices. Food inflation slowed to 8.89 per cent year-on-year, the first single-digit reading since May 2015. Compared with January 2025, when food inflation stood above 29 per cent, this represents a 20.73 percentage-point decline.
On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell by 6.02 per cent, indicating actual reductions in prices rather than merely slower increases. Given that food accounts for the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria, particularly among lower-income households, this shift provides tangible relief.
Improved agricultural supply conditions, greater exchange-rate stability and policy measures aimed at easing food import bottlenecks contributed to the moderation. While structural constraints remain, the January data suggest that supply-side pressures are currently less severe than in the preceding year.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy components to capture underlying price trends, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January. Although still elevated, the figure reflects moderation compared with previous highs during the inflation surge.
Urban inflation was recorded at 15.36 per cent, while rural inflation stood at 14.44 per cent, demonstrating that the disinflation trend is relatively broad-based across geographical segments.
Notably, the overall consumer price index contracted by 2.88 per cent month-on-month, a development that underscores weakening short-term price pressures. This contraction suggests that the downward trajectory is not merely statistical base effects but reflects real-time easing in price dynamics.
Nigeria Within the African Inflation Cycle
Nigeria’s inflation moderation is unfolding alongside similar trends across several African economies. In recent months, a number of countries on the continent have reported slowing headline inflation, particularly in food components, supported by improved harvest cycles, currency stabilisation and softer global commodity prices.
The broader regional pattern strengthens the credibility of Nigeria’s disinflation trajectory. It suggests that external factors, including global supply chain adjustments and easing commodity volatility, are reinforcing domestic policy efforts.
However, Nigeria’s inflation level remains higher than that of several regional peers, underscoring the need for sustained structural reforms to consolidate stability.
The January inflation data arrives just ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s first monetary policy meeting of 2026. After maintaining a tight policy stance throughout much of 2025, the bank now operates in a different macroeconomic environment.
Ten consecutive months of disinflation create space for potential interest rate recalibration, particularly if price moderation continues. Lower inflation reduces pressure on real incomes, supports consumer confidence and improves credit conditions for businesses.
That said, policymakers are likely to proceed cautiously. External risks, including global commodity fluctuations and currency volatility, remain potential sources of renewed pressure. Premature easing could reverse gains if underlying vulnerabilities resurface.
January’s inflation figure does not signal the end of Nigeria’s economic challenges, but it marks a meaningful transition. A fall from 27.61 per cent to 15.10 per cent within twelve months represents a significant shift in macroeconomic conditions.
If sustained, the current trajectory could stabilise purchasing power, strengthen investor confidence and create a more predictable environment for economic planning in 2026. The durability of this progress will depend on continued supply stability, disciplined monetary management and broader structural adjustments across the economy.
