U.S. President Donald Trump signed into law an extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), signalling a short-term preservation of duty-free access for eligible Sub-Saharan African exports to the United States through to the end of December 2026, with retroactive effect from its lapse on 30 September 2025. The move follows months of intense negotiation in the U.S. Congress and comes against the backdrop of shifting global trade dynamics and geopolitical contestation over access to African markets.
AGOA, first enacted in 2000, has been one of the central pillars of U.S.–Africa economic relations for more than two decades, providing eligible African nations with duty-free access to the large U.S. market for thousands of products, spanning textiles, agriculture, vehicles and other manufactured goods. The latest extension shortens what had been a House-approved three-year renewal to a single year, agreed by the Senate and now signed by the President. This temporally limited renewal aims to provide a window for the United States to reconsider and potentially modernise the programme, aligning it with its broader “America First” trade policy while preserving some measure of predictability for African exporters and investors.
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For African economies that have long relied on AGOA benefits to sustain export-led growth and job creation, even a one-year extension matters. AGOA supports duty-free access for over 1,800 products and is widely credited with supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent. Countries that have been most engaged in utilising these preferences include South Africa, Kenya, Lesotho, Nigeria and several others, many of which have developed export sectors around the preferential regime.
The Weight of Duty-Free Access on African Trade
Recent data underscores the scale of reliance on AGOA markets. In 2024, U.S. imports of AGOA-eligible goods from Africa were valued at around $8.0 billion, marking a modest decline from $9.3 billion in 2023, reflecting both global economic headwinds and the impact of uncertainty over the programme’s future. Within that total, non-oil exports, including passenger vehicles, apparel and agricultural products, accounted for approximately $6.0 billion, while crude oil represented about $2.0 billion.
Apparel and textiles have been among the most visible beneficiaries. For instance, Kenya’s garment industry exported hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of goods to the United States under AGOA, sustaining tens of thousands of jobs, particularly for women in export processing zones. Lesotho, too, has seen its textile sector’s fortunes intertwined with AGOA access, with tariffs of up to 50 per cent imposed abruptly in 2025 before being partially reduced after lobbying.
Agriculture and food products, such as horticultural exports, coffee and cocoa, also stand to benefit from duty-free entry, helping countries with relatively less diversified industrial bases to carve out niches in competitive global markets. In many smaller economies, AGOA eligibility has helped attract foreign direct investment into processing and manufacturing sectors otherwise constrained by limited domestic market size.
Business Sentiment and Policy Reactions
The immediate reaction among African governments and trade bodies is cautious relief. South Africa’s Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau welcomed the extension but underscored the uncertainty inherent in a single-year renewal, stressing that investment and purchasing decisions hinge on longer-term stability in trade policy. The continuing imposition of steep U.S. tariffs on certain African exports, including vehicles and other manufactured goods, complicates the picture, as these tariffs can, in practice, negate the benefits AGOA offers even where duty-free access is preserved.
Business sentiment across key export sectors reflects a mix of guarded optimism and ongoing concern. Manufacturers and exporters in apparel and agro-processing have emphasised that clarity over AGOA’s duration is essential for making long-term capital investments. In Kenya and Lesotho, for example, textile firms have lobbied intensely for renewal, noting that export processing zones and employment prospects depend heavily on preferential access. Some firms argue that tariff volatility and the prospect of exclusion from AGOA altogether would undermine confidence and imperil competitiveness in the U.S. market.
Geopolitics and Reform Prospects
The renewal of AGOA is not simply an economic story; it sits at the intersection of geopolitics and global trade competition. Washington sees the programme as a tool to strengthen ties with Africa and as part of a broader strategy to balance China’s expanding influence on the continent. Beijing’s moves, including tariff eliminations for exports from most African states earlier in 2025, have underscored the competitive tensions shaping trade policy choices.
At the same time, debates over AGOA reform are likely to intensify in 2026. The Trump administration has signalled support for modernising the programme, potentially to enhance market access for U.S. businesses and align the law with contemporary trade objectives, including greater reciprocity. Critics of the current model argue that AGOA has never fully delivered diversified export growth, with African exports to the United States still heavily concentrated in oil, minerals and a narrow range of manufactured goods. Proponents counter that the programme is vital for economic diversification in countries that lack alternative preferential market openings of similar scale.
What Lies Ahead
As the curtain rises on 2026 with AGOA’s extension in place, African exporters face both opportunity and risk. The one-year renewal offers a reprieve that allows businesses to maintain duty-free access for now, but it also highlights the precarity that has surrounded the programme for much of the past eighteen months. With Congress, the USTR and African governments expected to engage in discussions over potential reforms or longer-term frameworks, the coming months will be critical in determining whether AGOA continues to serve as a catalyst for African export growth, industrialisation and job creation, or whether it evolves into a new form of trade partnership adapted to the shifting rules of global commerce.
In practical terms, exporters and policymakers alike will need to weigh the short-term benefits of maintained access against the strategic imperatives of diversifying markets through regional integration efforts such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and deepening trade ties with Europe and Asia. The path forward will require not only political will but coherent policy coordination across African capitals to maximise the advantages of preferential trade while building resilience to external shocks.
Ultimately, the extension of AGOA to the end of 2026 is a crucial juncture, a moment for reflection on what has been achieved, and for concerted action on the reforms and strategic alliances needed to sustain and expand Africa’s footprint in global trade.
