Artificial intelligence is no longer an abstract concept confined to research labs or advanced economies. Globally, AI is fast becoming a central driver of productivity, competitiveness and economic restructuring. Estimates suggest that AI could add more than $25 trillion to the global economy by 2035, reshaping industries, labour markets and public services. Africa’s projected share of this transformation, though comparatively modest at about four per cent, carries disproportionate significance for a continent seeking to accelerate growth, close development gaps and harness its youthful population.
Africa’s AI moment sits at the intersection of necessity and opportunity. Rapid digitalisation, expanding mobile connectivity, and a growing technology ecosystem are creating the conditions for AI adoption. At the same time, persistent structural challenges, from infrastructure deficits to skills shortages, underline the urgency of getting the foundations right. Whether Africa emerges as an active participant or a passive consumer in the global AI economy will depend on the choices made in the coming years.
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The African Development Bank’s recent analysis places Africa’s AI opportunity in sharp relief. Its flagship report, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation, projects that the strategic and inclusive deployment of AI could add up to $1 trillion in additional GDP by 2035. This figure represents nearly one-third of Africa’s current economic output, underscoring the scale of the opportunity at stake.
Crucially, the report frames this projection not as speculative optimism but as a realistic outcome under clearly defined conditions. AI, if embedded across productive sectors and supported by coherent policy and investment frameworks, could become a powerful engine for labour efficiency, value creation and inclusive growth. However, the report also issues a clear warning: without coordination, governance and sustained investment, Africa risks missing this dividend altogether.
The analysis outlines two contrasting economic pathways for the continent. In a baseline scenario, where reforms progress slowly and AI adoption remains fragmented, Africa’s economy could grow to around $4.23 trillion by 2035. While this reflects steady expansion, it falls short of the transformative growth required to absorb a rapidly expanding workforce and raise living standards at scale.
In an AI-enabled scenario, by contrast, coordinated investments in digital infrastructure, skills, data systems and governance could lift Africa’s GDP to approximately $5.23 trillion by 2035. The $1 trillion difference between these trajectories captures the productivity gains unlocked when AI is deployed deliberately across the economy. According to the AfDB, the years leading up to 2026 are particularly critical, as early momentum will determine whether Africa’s “AI flywheel” gains traction or stalls.
Where the Gains Will Be Made
The report makes clear that AI’s economic impact will not be evenly distributed. Around 58 per cent of the projected gains, equivalent to roughly $580 billion, are expected to come from five high-impact sectors that combine scale, readiness and development relevance.
Agriculture is projected to account for about 20 per cent of the total gains. AI applications in precision farming, climate risk modelling and irrigation management could significantly improve yields, reduce losses and enhance food security across the continent. Given that agriculture remains a major employer in Africa, productivity improvements here carry both economic and social weight.
Wholesale and retail trade, responsible for an estimated 14 per cent of the gains, stands to benefit from AI-driven improvements in logistics, inventory management and customer engagement. These efficiencies are particularly relevant in Africa’s large informal sector, where better data and digital tools can unlock access to finance and formal markets.
Manufacturing and the broader Industry 4.0 ecosystem are expected to contribute around nine per cent of the gains, driven by smarter process control, reduced defects and more efficient production lines. Financial services and financial inclusion could capture about eight per cent, as AI enhances credit scoring, speeds up loan processing and expands access for the unbanked. Health and life sciences, accounting for seven per cent, could see improvements in diagnostics, supply chain management and service delivery, with direct implications for population wellbeing.
The Foundations That Will Decide the Outcome
At the heart of Africa’s AI ambition lies a set of interdependent enablers that the AfDB describes as essential to turning potential into performance. High-quality data ecosystems are fundamental, as AI systems are only as effective as the information they process. Equally important is access to scalable computing capacity, without which AI solutions cannot be deployed at a meaningful scale.
Skills development represents another decisive factor. Beyond advanced technical expertise, there is a need for widespread digital literacy and adaptive capabilities that allow workers and institutions to integrate AI into everyday operations. Trust, anchored in sound governance and regulatory frameworks, is also critical. Clear rules around data protection, ethics and accountability will determine public acceptance and investor confidence. Finally, mobilising capital at scale, through public funding, private investment and development finance, will be necessary to bridge existing financing gaps.
The report stresses that progress in these areas must be coordinated. Fragmented advances risk creating pockets of innovation without systemic impact, while delays beyond 2030 could see Africa locked out of the foundational phase of global AI development.
Jobs, Revenues and the Question of Inclusion
Beyond headline GDP figures, the AI-enabled pathway carries significant implications for employment and public finances. Projections suggest that AI could support the creation of between 35 million and 40 million net new digital and digitally enabled jobs by 2035. These roles would span technology development, service delivery and AI-adjacent sectors, offering new opportunities for Africa’s young and increasingly urban workforce.
Fiscal gains are equally significant. Annual tax revenues could rise by an estimated $150 billion, strengthening governments’ ability to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare and social protection. For many African states, such revenue streams could ease chronic budgetary pressures, provided they are managed transparently and strategically.
Workforce readiness emerges as one of the most pressing challenges. Africa’s demographic advantage will only translate into economic gains if education systems, training institutions and employers align around future skills needs. This includes not only engineers and data scientists, but also professionals capable of applying AI ethically and effectively across sectors.
Public-private partnerships, targeted reskilling initiatives and regional collaboration will be essential to scale these efforts. Without them, the risk is that AI deepens existing inequalities rather than broadening opportunity.
Major economies are investing aggressively in AI research, talent and infrastructure, raising the stakes for late movers. For Africa, policy coherence at national and continental levels will be decisive. Harmonised data regulations, innovation-friendly policies and alignment with broader African Union digital strategies will help ensure that AI adoption supports integration rather than fragmentation.
From Possibility to Performance
The contours of Africa’s AI opportunity are now clearly defined. A $1 trillion revenue uplift by 2035 is within reach, but only if ambition is matched by execution. Strategic investment, institutional reform, skills development and regional cooperation will determine whether AI becomes a catalyst for inclusive growth or a missed opportunity.
The roadmap exists. The challenge ahead is to move decisively from promise to performance, ensuring that Africa’s place in the global AI economy is shaped by intent rather than chance.
