South Africa’s Nedbank Group is offering to acquire a 66% controlling stake in Kenya’s NCBA Group. The 13.9 billion rand (approximately $856 million) cash-and-stock transaction is a strategic bet on Kenya as East Africa’s financial nerve centre, a recalibration of South African capital toward faster-growing regional economies, and a statement about where Africa’s next phase of banking growth will originate.
For Kenya, the proposed deal is not just foreign investment; it is a vote of confidence in its financial system, digital innovation model, and long-term economic fundamentals. If finalised, Nedbank will acquire a majority stake in NCBA, structuring the payment as 20% cash and 80% in new Nedbank shares based on a valuation of R250 per share, while the remaining 34% of NCBA shares will continue to be listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange; NCBA will retain its brand, local management, and board but become a subsidiary of Nedbank, in what would constitute one of East Africa’s largest-ever cross-border banking acquisitions.
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Nedbank’s targeted acquisition is strategically driven by Kenya’s position as East Africa’s dominant financial hub, featuring a resilient economy, a pivotal role in regional and intercontinental trade corridors, and a uniquely advanced digital finance ecosystem, collectively offering the scale and growth optionality the South African bank requires to expand beyond its saturated domestic market.
In 2025, Kenya’s economy achieved moderate growth, with a nominal GDP of approximately US$136 billion expanding between 4.8% and 5.6%, primarily driven by agriculture, construction, financial services, and trade, supported by a stabilised Kenyan shilling and a positive inflation environment moderated to around 3.8%.
Financial services remain one of Kenya’s most productive sectors, both in employment and value creation, making the NCBA-Nedbank transaction macro-economically significant.
Formed in 2019 by merging NIC Group, a long-established asset finance specialist, and the digitally innovative Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA), NCBA Group carries a legacy of pioneering financial inclusion, most notably through CBA’s foundational partnership with Safaricom that created the transformative mobile lending platform M-Shwari.
With total assets of KES 707.5 billion, a nine-month profit after tax of KES 14.6 billion, and a vast customer base exceeding 60 million largely served through its digital platform, which facilitates around KES 1 trillion in annual digital lending, NCBA operates 122 branches across six African countries and is showing improved financial health with a non-performing loan ratio of approximately 12.2%.
NCBA is now one of Kenya’s systemically important banks, with deep retail reach and strong corporate and SME franchises.
Nedbank, with origins dating to the 19th century and a position as one of South Africa’s “Big Four” banks, is strategically pivoting its capital toward higher-growth regions. As of mid-2025, it brought substantial scale with a market cap near R127 billion and robust capital metrics to a complementary partnership with NCBA. This pairing strategically merges NCBA’s unparalleled digital and retail strength in East Africa with Nedbank’s corporate and institutional banking expertise in Southern Africa, creating a powerful pan-African platform.
For Kenya’s development, the transaction promises significant benefits, including capital deepening for large-scale infrastructure and corporate finance, enhanced regional trade integration under AfCFTA, and accelerated financial innovation in areas like green finance and SME lending. It also strongly bolsters Kenya’s image as a stable financial hub and a premier destination for foreign direct investment in East Africa.
Nevertheless, the path forward includes navigating regulatory approvals across jurisdictions and managing ongoing market headwinds such as asset quality pressures and digital credit risks. Both institutions, however, approach the deal from positions of operational and financial strength, which mitigates these challenges.
This proposed acquisition represents more than a corporate transaction; it is a strategic alignment that positions Kenya as Africa’s financial bridge, connecting Southern African capital with East African growth. It validates Kenya’s digital banking ecosystem and macroeconomic reforms, aiming to create a model of African capital financing African development on a continental scale.
