Africa’s growth story is being rewritten, not through aid dependency, but through investment, trade, and self-determination. The newly released Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) “Where to Invest in Africa 2025/26” (WTIIA) report captures this transformation vividly. Under the theme “From aid to investment and trade,” the report positions Africa not as a frontier of aid dependency but as a rising hub of opportunity, resilience, and reform-driven progress. Across 31 nations, representing 90% of the continent’s GDP, RMB’s analysis paints a detailed, data-driven picture of where growth, innovation, and investor confidence are converging to define the continent’s next chapter.
A Changing Landscape: From Aid Dependency to Investment Confidence
RMB’s Chief Economist, Isaah Mhlanga, underscores how Africa’s political and policy shifts in the past year, from elections and unrest to global capital realignment, have profoundly reshaped its investment terrain. The continent is moving from a model of foreign aid reliance to one of economic agency, driven by structural reforms, domestic capital mobilisation, and regional integration. As traditional donors recalibrate, African economies are redefining engagement with global markets, prioritising trade partnerships, digital innovation, and private-sector investment as the cornerstones of development.
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The WTIIA 2025/26 report, developed with the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), serves as a compass for investors navigating this evolving landscape. It ranks countries across four pillars: economic performance and potential, market accessibility and innovation, economic stability and investment climate, and social and human development, offering a balanced perspective that goes beyond short-term volatility to long-term fundamentals.
The Top Performers: Islands of Stability and Engines of Scale
The top five nations remain unchanged from last year: Seychelles, Mauritius, Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco, a testament to the structural stability of their markets. Seychelles and Mauritius continue to punch above their weight, offering strong fiscal discipline, policy predictability, and investor-friendly environments despite their small size. Egypt retains its continental heavyweight status, while South Africa, though “stuck in neutral” according to GIBS Professor Adrian Saville, remains an investable hub due to its deep capital markets, energy reforms, and improving logistics network.
Morocco, ranked fifth, continues to shine as North Africa’s most reform-oriented economy, strategically positioning itself as a green investment and manufacturing hub linking Europe and Africa. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire’s remarkable rise up eight spots to 8th place reflects the rewards of diversification and macroeconomic reform. Tanzania and Ghana continue to attract attention for political stability, business reform, and digital advancement, with Tanzania overtaking Kenya as East Africa’s most attractive destination.
Nigeria’s Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Promise
The most significant mover in the 2025/26 index is Nigeria, which fell nine places to 18th. However, this decline tells a deeper story of structural correction rather than deterioration. The drop reflects currency devaluation, subsidy reforms, and rebasing efforts that have temporarily disrupted indicators but are laying the foundations for stability. Nigeria’s pivot to a flexible exchange rate, alongside fuel subsidy management and fiscal transparency, mirrors the tough short-term medicine required for long-term economic health.
With growth projected between 3.0% and 3.3% (IMF), Nigeria’s fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by its massive consumer base, reform momentum, and potential in energy, fintech, and creative industries. As the Tinubu administration consolidates macroeconomic adjustments, the country’s “temporary dip” may well set the stage for a renewed investment surge by 2026.
Market Challenges and Headwinds
While Africa’s outlook is broadly optimistic, challenges persist. Debt sustainability remains a pressing concern in several economies. Chinese loans account for up to 20% of external debt. The trade imbalance continues, with many nations still reliant on raw material exports instead of value-added goods. Political instability in regions like Sudan, Ethiopia, and the DRC disrupts continuity, while Western competition, notably through the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), intensifies geopolitical pressures.
Moreover, local job creation remains a sore point. Critics argue that some foreign-led projects still rely heavily on imported labour and materials, limiting the socioeconomic benefits for African citizens. These headwinds, though persistent, also represent strategic catalysts pushing governments to strengthen domestic capacity, industrialise, and diversify trade partnerships through mechanisms like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The Data Behind the Partnership: What the Numbers Say
RMB’s latest data framework, encompassing 31 nations and 20 key metrics, paints a detailed picture of Africa’s shifting economic landscape. According to the African Development Bank, the continent’s growth is projected to reach 3.9% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, buoyed by improving macroeconomic management. The World Bank echoes this optimism, citing cooling inflation and stabilising currencies across several economies as indicators of strengthening fiscal fundamentals and renewed investor confidence.
Sectorally, Africa’s investment frontier is widening fast. Renewable energy is surging as over 600 million Africans still lack access to reliable power, while fintech continues to lead globally in mobile banking and digital payments. Agritech presents unmatched potential, with the continent holding 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. Meanwhile, post-pandemic resilience has triggered renewed private-sector interest in healthcare, and major infrastructure projects from smart cities to transnational rail networks remain at the heart of Africa’s industrial and economic transformation.
Future Trends and Opportunities: The Next Decade of African Growth
Looking toward 2030, Africa’s financial and industrial evolution will be shaped by AI-driven financial services, ESG investing, and green sovereign bonds. Artificial intelligence will revolutionise risk modelling, credit scoring, and fraud detection, deepening access to finance across underserved populations. Meanwhile, Africa’s growing embrace of climate-aligned finance and green bond issuance will attract sustainability-focused investors seeking impact and returns.
Public–private partnerships will also gain prominence, with domestic pension funds and insurers funding infrastructure, energy, and technology projects. If reforms continue apace, Africa’s development banks could create millions of new jobs, reduce inequality, and anchor the continent as the world’s next major investment frontier.
The Continental Implication: From Vulnerability to Vanguard
The WTIIA 2025/26 report is more than a ranking; it’s a reflection of Africa’s growing self-determination in global economics. As aid dependency fades and trade-driven growth takes hold, Africa is stepping into its own agency. From the reform laboratories of Lagos to the green corridors of Casablanca and the digital hubs of Nairobi, the continent is building a future grounded in innovation, inclusion, and sustainability.
Yes, challenges abound from debt to policy uncertainty, but the broader arc of Africa’s economic narrative is shifting upward. RMB’s latest findings affirm that Africa’s future will not be defined by its constraints but by how effectively it converts its vast potential into prosperity, resilience, and global relevance.
