Ghana entered 2026 with a macroeconomic signal few would have anticipated a year earlier: a sustained, credible slowdown in inflation that now appears structurally anchored rather than episodic. Official data released by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) in early January confirms that headline consumer inflation fell to 5.4 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, extending a downward trend that has now lasted twelve consecutive months. The figure represents not only a moderation from 6.3 per cent in November 2025, but a dramatic retreat from the 23.8 per cent recorded in December 2024, underscoring a decisive shift in Ghana’s price dynamics.
This outcome places Ghana among a small group of African economies that have successfully transitioned from acute inflationary stress to near-target stability within a compressed timeframe. According to Reuters, the December figure is the lowest inflation rate recorded since Ghana rebased its Consumer Price Index in 2021, reinforcing the credibility of the current data framework and signalling a material change in underlying price behaviour rather than a statistical anomaly.
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The significance of December’s data lies not merely in the headline number, but in the consistency of the trend that preceded it. Monthly CPI readings from January through December 2025 show a steady deceleration in year-on-year inflation, with each successive month reinforcing the direction of travel. The CPI index rose to 261.7 points in December 2025 from 248.3 points a year earlier, translating into the 5.4 per cent annual increase confirmed by the GSS.
Month-on-month inflation stood at 0.9 per cent in December, unchanged from November. This indicates that while prices are still rising incrementally, the pace of increase has stabilised at levels consistent with low and predictable inflation. For policymakers, this distinction matters. It suggests that the slowdown is not the result of temporary price compression, but rather a recalibration of inflation expectations across the economy.
Food, Non-Food and the Anatomy of Disinflation
A closer reading of the CPI release shows that the easing of inflation has been broad-based. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, which carry a weight of approximately 42.7 per cent in Ghana’s CPI basket, recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 4.9 per cent in December, down from 6.6 per cent in November. This decline is particularly consequential in a country where food expenditure absorbs a significant share of household income and acts as the primary transmission channel for inflationary pressure.
Non-food inflation also softened, easing to 5.8 per cent from 6.1 per cent in the previous month. Goods inflation slowed markedly to 5.8 per cent from 7.3 per cent, a relief for consumers given that goods account for nearly three-quarters of the CPI basket. Services inflation, by contrast, edged higher to 4.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent, reflecting persistent cost pressures in accommodation, education, and certain personal services. However, services remain a smaller component of the overall inflation structure, limiting their impact on the headline rate.
Local Versus Imported Price Pressures
One of the most telling indicators of Ghana’s inflation reset is the divergence between locally produced and imported items. Inflation for locally produced goods fell to 5.9 per cent in December from 6.8 per cent in November, while imported inflation declined to 4.3 per cent from 5.0 per cent. This dual moderation suggests that both domestic supply conditions and external price pass-throughs have improved simultaneously.
Such alignment is rare in periods of rapid disinflation and points to enhanced exchange-rate stability, improved market access within regions, and easing logistical bottlenecks. The GSS notes that improved transport flows and better market integration have contributed to narrowing regional price disparities, even though sharp differences persist between regions such as the Eastern Region, which recorded inflation of 11.2 per cent, and the Savannah Region, where prices fell by 1.2 per cent year-on-year.
Importantly, Ghana’s inflation slowdown has not coincided with economic stagnation. Reuters reports that Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by agriculture and services. This combination of moderating inflation and sustained growth strengthens the argument that the country has entered a phase of macroeconomic rebalancing rather than contraction.
From a global macroeconomic perspective, this positions Ghana more favourably with investors and multilateral institutions that prioritise price stability as a precondition for long-term capital deployment. It also enhances fiscal planning, as predictable inflation improves the real value of tax revenues and reduces the volatility of public expenditure commitments.
Policy Discipline and Institutional Credibility
While the GSS data does not attribute causality, the consistency of the inflation decline aligns with tighter fiscal coordination, improved monetary signalling, and reinforced institutional credibility. The Bank of Ghana’s inflation-targeting framework appears to be regaining traction, with expectations increasingly anchored around mid-single-digit outcomes rather than double-digit volatility.
The CPI methodology itself lends weight to the findings. Inflation is calculated using price data from 307 items across 57 markets and over 8,300 outlets nationwide, structured into 13 divisions and weighted using a 2017 reference basket updated to a 2021 price base. This breadth reduces the risk of sectoral distortions and strengthens confidence in the headline number.
Despite the progress, the December figures also highlight areas of residual risk. Services inflation is trending upward, and regional disparities remain pronounced. Certain food items, including plantain, ginger, and charcoal, continue to record high inflation rates, even as others experience sharp price declines. This uneven adjustment underscores the need for targeted interventions in storage, transport, and market access to prevent renewed price pressures from emerging at the local level.
Nevertheless, the overall direction is clear. Ghana’s inflation story at the close of 2025 is no longer one of emergency management but of consolidation.
A Measured Turning Point
The fall in inflation to 5.4 per cent in December 2025 marks more than a statistical milestone. It signals a transition into a phase where price stability can once again serve as a foundation for planning, investment, and long-term growth. In a global environment where inflation outcomes remain uneven and fragile, Ghana’s twelve-month disinflation streak stands out as a rare example of sustained adjustment grounded in data, discipline, and institutional coherence.
If maintained, this trajectory could redefine Ghana’s macroeconomic narrative in 2026 from recovery to resilience.
