Nigeria, long recognised as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, is undergoing a significant transformation in its energy landscape. Historically, the country has been the continent’s top petrol importer, heavily reliant on imported refined petroleum products despite its vast oil reserves. However, recent advancements in domestic refining capacity, spearheaded by the monumental Dangote Refinery, are redefining Nigeria’s role in Africa’s fuel economy.
The Rise of Dangote Refinery and Nigeria’s Reduced Dependence on Imports
The Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest and one of the continent’s most ambitious energy projects, began ramping up operations in 2024. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, this mega-refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria’s energy self-sufficiency. By the start of 2025, the refinery was producing approximately 550,000 barrels daily, now supplying about 60% of Nigeria’s petrol demand.
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This substantial increase in capacity has led to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s fuel imports. According to a recent report by energy consultancy CITAC, Nigeria imported just 3.1 million tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025—less than half of what it imported in prior years. This marks a significant departure from historical dependence, signalling Nigeria’s move toward self-sufficiency.
Policy Reforms and Infrastructure Development
Nigeria’s journey toward reducing imports is rooted in targeted reforms within its petroleum sector. The government has prioritised expanding domestic refining capacity through the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery and the establishment of several modular refineries across the country. These initiatives aim to address long-standing issues of underperforming refineries, corruption, and inefficient subsidy systems that have historically disrupted local fuel supply chains.
By boosting local refining output, Nigeria is not only cutting its import bills but also saving foreign exchange—potentially up to $10 billion in 2025, according to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group. The move also aligns with broader efforts to enhance energy security, create jobs, and stimulate economic growth.
Contrasting Energy Trajectories: South Africa’s Rising Imports
While Nigeria is making strides toward self-sufficiency, South Africa’s energy picture presents a contrasting narrative. The country has surpassed Nigeria as Africa’s largest petrol importer, driven by persistent challenges in its domestic refining sector and increasing fuel demand.
South Africa’s refining industry has suffered from chronic underinvestment, industrial accidents, and refinery closures. Nearly 49% of its refining capacity remains idle, with major facilities like Sapref and Engen’s plants either offline or operating below capacity. As a result, South Africa now relies on imports to meet more than 60% of its fuel needs, with imports reaching approximately 4.2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025—surpassing Nigeria’s import volume.
Broader Implications for Africa’s Energy Sector
The contrasting developments in Nigeria and South Africa reflect broader shifts in Africa’s energy landscape. Nigeria’s successful ramp-up of domestic refining capacity signals a move toward energy independence, reducing vulnerability to global supply disruptions and fluctuating prices. Conversely, South Africa’s ongoing refining challenges highlight the need for substantial investment and infrastructure upgrades to stabilise local supply.
The recent CITAC report underscores these trends, revealing that crude throughput across sub-Saharan Africa’s refineries increased by nearly 78% in 2024, primarily driven by Nigeria’s expanded refining output. Meanwhile, South Africa’s refining capacity remains hamstrung, emphasising the importance of policy reforms and infrastructure investment.
Looking Ahead
Nigeria’s progress in reducing petrol imports marks a pivotal step toward energy sovereignty. The Dangote Refinery’s contribution demonstrates how large-scale infrastructure projects can catalyse national self-reliance, save foreign exchange, and potentially stimulate economic growth. It also serves as a blueprint for other African nations seeking to bolster local refining capacity.
However, sustained investment, policy stability, and operational efficiency are essential to maintain momentum. For South Africa, addressing its ageing infrastructure and fostering an enabling environment for private investment will be critical to reversing declining domestic capacity and reducing its reliance on imports.
Nigeria’s transition from Africa’s top petrol importer to a more self-sufficient energy producer underscores the transformative power of strategic infrastructure development and policy reforms. As the Dangote Refinery continues to ramp up production, Nigeria is poised to redefine its energy trajectory, reduce costly imports, and bolster economic resilience. Meanwhile, South Africa’s experience serves as a reminder of the importance of investing in and maintaining domestic refining capacity to meet growing fuel demands. Together, these developments illustrate a dynamic shift in Africa’s energy landscape, shaping a more self-reliant future for the continent.
