Cities are the dominant frontier of twenty-first-century human habitation. By 2050, nearly 68 per cent of the world’s population will live in urban areas, driven by migration, economic promise, and demographic momentum. Africa stands at the epicentre of this transformation. Its urban population is set to soar from some 700 million in 2025 to approximately 1.4 billion by mid-century, making it the fastest urbanising continent after Asia. This provides a monumental opportunity to reshape growth and productivity but also exposes glaring vulnerabilities.
In 2023, roughly 45 per cent of Africans were urban dwellers, up from about 35 per Urbanisation is escalating at nearly 3.5 per cent annually, meaning cities are expanding spatially faster than their populations grow, with built-up areas increasing at about 3.2 per cent per year. By 2050, six African megacities, Luanda, Dar es Salaam, Cairo, Kinshasa, Lagos, and Johannesburg, are set to double. Meanwhile, more than 60 per cent of residents in these same urban areas live in slums or informal settlements, often without access to clean water, sanitation, and secure housing. This presents an urgent paradox: a skyline adorned with modern high-rises, yet a base entrenched in poverty and exclusion.
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Luxury Real Estate vs Urban Exclusion
Across Nairobi’s burgeoning skyline stands the 88 Nairobi Condominium Tower, a 47-storey luxury residence, slated to become Sub-Saharan Africa’s tallest residential building when completed by 2026. Meanwhile in Lagos, opulent high-end developments like the Eko Atlantic City cater to a wealthy minority, forming enclaves of affluence disconnected from the city’s broader infrastructure. Yet three-quarters of the workforce still labours in the informal economy, unable to access such housing. These parallel realities, gleaming luxury and sprawling informality underscore a development model increasingly structured around profit rather than people.
This trend is not isolated. In Johannesburg, Sandton’s skyscrapers tower above Alexandra township, separated by a highway but worlds apart in living conditions. In Egypt, the New Administrative Capital gleams with grandiose government buildings and luxury villas while Cairo’s existing housing stock deteriorates. These developments exemplify an urban future shaped by capital accumulation rather than inclusive growth.
The Anatomy of Vulnerability
Informal settlements such as Kibera in Nairobi illustrate how uneven growth perpetuates risk. Built upon refuse and flood-prone terrain, many structures are structurally unstable; poor drainage systems exacerbate the vulnerability. Government-led upgrading efforts and UN-Habitat initiatives have attempted to improve sanitation and housing, yet obstacles such as material theft and land tenure disputes persist. In Kinshasa, Niamey, and Abidjan, informal settlements are increasingly vulnerable to floods, with data showing that flood damage costs African economies nearly $7 billion annually.
Furthermore, urban heat islands, where temperatures are significantly higher than in rural surroundings, affect the poorest communities the most. These areas often lack green spaces or adequate building materials to buffer against temperature extremes.
Smart Growth and Governance under PIDA
The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) provides a strategic continental framework that can align infrastructure investment, urban planning, and environmental resilience. Through its Priority Action Plans (PAPs), PIDA aims to integrate transport, energy, water, and ICT to support regional connectivity and inclusive urban growth. If cities harness PIDA’s governance mechanisms and leverage institutional channels such as AUDA-NEPAD, AfDB, and regional economic communities, they can steer construction booms toward people-centred outcomes.
In practical terms, this requires integrating “smart city” elements, such as data-driven traffic management and public transport apps, into broader infrastructure investments. For PIDA to truly benefit the urban poor, megaprojects and luxury development must be integrated with financing models that support affordable housing, upgrade slums, and equip local governments with the necessary capacity for long-term maintenance.
PIDA Phase II (2021–2030) already outlines 69 priority projects, with a heavy focus on corridor development, energy connectivity, and water resource management. However, its potential remains undercut unless national and municipal governments prioritise equity. Without local buy-in, PIDA may end up reinforcing rather than reducing inequalities.
Nairobi’s Youth, Dreams, and Disillusionment
The experience of Nairobi’s younger residents brings this tension into sharp relief. Despite attending university and envisioning upward mobility, many end up in low-paid jobs or informal employment, without access to equitable housing or public transport. The urban sprawl and gated towers symbolise aspiration, yet opportunity remains elusive. This dissonance has triggered youth-led protests in Nairobi, Lagos, and Maputo, highlighting that rapid construction without opportunity and inclusion yields social fragility.
The report shows that 60 per cent of Africa’s population is under 25, yet youth unemployment averages 12.7 per cent across the continent. In cities like Kampala and Harare, affordable rental housing is almost nonexistent, forcing youth to return to informal settlements even after acquiring tertiary education. Nairobi County’s recent plan to build 20,000 affordable housing units under Kenya’s Housing Agenda remains underfunded and behind schedule.
Inclusive Strategies for Constructive Change
Addressing this dichotomy requires balancing upscale development with socially grounded responsiveness. Cities must first map and analyse informal settlements with rigorous data monitoring systems. Planning frameworks should integrate slum upgrading with flood control and service provision. Expanding public transit, including formal minibuses, bus rapid transit, and ride-share platforms, can connect low-income neighbourhoods with job centres efficiently. Affordable housing initiatives must be anchored in public-private partnerships that are transparent, accountable, and people-focused.
Additionally, urban design must involve affected communities. Participatory planning is not just an ideal; it is a necessity. When residents are included in design and maintenance processes, outcomes are more durable and efficient. Kigali’s participatory slum upgrading programme offers a successful model. With community members involved from the design to the implementation phase, the program improved drainage, sanitation, and even security in key neighbourhoods without displacing residents.
In Lagos, recent moves to digitise land registry systems aim to reduce land disputes and empower local ownership. Meanwhile, in Durban, the adoption of climate-smart building codes helps mitigate flood risk and promote energy efficiency in new housing developments. These are not silver bullets but form part of an ecosystem of innovation.
Skylines Must Reflect Souls, Not Just Steel
Africa’s urban centres are undeniably dynamic. The continent’s construction boom offers an opportunity to reshape global development paradigms, yet current trajectories concentrate wealth vertically while urban deprivation spreads horizontally. Sustainable, inclusive urban growth demands a recalibration, deploying frameworks like PIDA, strengthening local governance, and embedding equity in every blueprint. If not, today’s skyscrapers will stand as monuments to inequity; but if steered wisely, they can become beacons of a more just, prosperous, and inclusive African future.
A truly African city of the future must not only boast smart grids and glass towers. It must guarantee clean water for children in its poorest wards, affordable homes for its teachers and traders, and transit systems that bridge social divides. In doing so, skylines can rise, not as markers of inequality but as shared symbols of transformation and collective dignity.
