Namibia, one of Southern Africa’s most resource-rich nations, is embarking on a bold journey to re-establish its status as an upper-middle-income country. Under the leadership of President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah—the nation’s first female head of state—Namibia has unveiled a transformative development plan built around sustainable growth, green energy, and industrial revival. This vision is not just about economic metrics but about reclaiming a future driven by innovation, resilience, and regional strength.
The Downgrade: A Wake-Up Call
In early 2025, the World Bank reclassified Namibia from an upper-middle-income economy to a lower-middle-income country, after the country’s gross national income (GNI) per capita slipped below the $4,496 threshold. A combination of sluggish economic activity, particularly in mining, and rapid population growth contributed to the downgrade.
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Namibia’s economy expanded by 3.7% in 2024, a drop from 4.4% in 2023, reflecting broader global volatility and reduced mining outputs. In response, President Nandi-Ndaitwah declared the downgrade a “temporary setback” in the foreword to her administration’s latest national development blueprint. “It is possible to increase the per capita income above $6,000 by 2030,” she asserted.
Namibia’s Path Forward: Green Growth and Economic Diversification
At the heart of Namibia’s rebound plan lies a strategic pivot to green energy and industrial innovation. The administration has set an ambitious annual growth target of 7%—a rate designed to lift both per capita income and the country’s long-term competitiveness.
Key Pillars of the Strategy Include:
1. Green Hydrogen & Renewable Energy
Namibia is positioning itself as Africa’s green hydrogen powerhouse. By 2028, the country aims to increase renewable energy capacity to 700 megawatts and generate 30,000 new green jobs by 2030. With its vast solar and wind potential and ample land space, Namibia is emerging as a global player in clean energy exports.
Green hydrogen will not only fuel Namibia’s energy ambitions but also anchor future industrial growth, offering opportunities in fuel exportation, clean manufacturing, and technological innovation.
2. Value-Added Manufacturing
Namibia plans to raise manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 15.6% to 18%, with a focus on value-added processes in mining, agriculture, and green energy. This shift is designed to reduce dependency on raw exports and build a self-sustaining industrial base.
3. Critical Minerals and Offshore Oil
The country’s position as one of the world’s leading uranium producers offers significant leverage in the clean energy and global nuclear sectors. Additionally, oil and gas production is expected to commence by 2029, following discoveries off the country’s coast. These resources will support fiscal expansion and industrial diversification, but the government has committed to channelling revenues into long-term investments, avoiding the pitfalls of resource dependency.
Regional Ambitions: Namibia and Botswana’s Energy Pact
Namibia’s development strategy extends beyond its borders, particularly through a strategic energy partnership with Botswana. In May 2025, President Nandi-Ndaitwah met with Botswana’s President Duma Boko to begin talks on a jointly operated oil refinery—a landmark move for Southern African energy integration.
Both countries currently rely heavily on imported refined petroleum:
• Namibia imported $1.52 billion in 2023
• Botswana imported $1.08 billion in the same year
Main suppliers include India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Malaysia—highlighting their dependence on foreign energy from Asia and the Middle East.
A regional refinery would reduce import dependence, improve energy security, and promote intra-African industrial value chains, potentially altering the energy map of Southern Africa.
Financing the Future
Namibia’s government has expressed commitment to blending public, private, and foreign capital to fund its ambitious agenda. While resource revenues from uranium, green hydrogen, and oil will form a foundation, the plan emphasises attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and unlocking climate finance mechanisms to scale renewable infrastructure.
The World Bank’s downgrade, rather than a deterrent, appears to have catalysed a more aggressive and visionary economic policy framework—rooted in diversification, clean energy, and manufacturing excellence.
A Resilient Vision in Motion
President Nandi-Ndaitwah’s administration is setting a new tone in Namibian governance—one that prioritises sustainability, equity, and long-term resilience over short-term optics. With its eyes on $6,000 per capita income by 2030, and a green-powered industrial future, Namibia may soon not only reclaim its former status but redefine what it means to be an upper-middle-income country in Africa.
In a continent racing toward energy independence and economic reinvention, Namibia’s playbook may offer a replicable model of green-driven transformation and regional collaboration.
