As Africa steps more decisively into the clean-energy arena, an unseen veil gathers on the horizon. Import tariffs and waning green-energy incentives, spanning solar panels, batteries, and electric-vehicle components, risk dimming the continent’s promising trajectory. At a moment when ambition is rising, protective trade regimes could stall progress, pricing advanced technologies out of reach and slowing the inevitable shift to a sustainable future.
The stakes could not be higher. Africa boasts 60% of the planet’s most promising solar potential, yet it contributes a mere 1% to the world’s installed solar PV capacity. Despite holding abundant reserves of critical minerals, the continent still relies heavily on imported technology and processing for renewable systems. As a result, any tremor in global supply chains, be it soaring import tariffs or protectionist trade policies, threatens to push Africa’s clean energy aspirations years off course.
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The Tariff Trap
Trade policy is no longer just about protecting domestic industries, it’s a tool in the emerging clean energy race. The United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, for example, has tied tax credits for electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries to domestic sourcing, prompting similar protectionist moves in the European Union and parts of Asia. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), these policies are reshaping supply chains, concentrating manufacturing in countries with strong incentives, and sidelining others, especially in Africa.
In 2024, the average global tariff on renewable energy equipment rose by 12% compared to 2021 levels. For African nations reliant on imported photovoltaic modules, battery cells, and wind turbine components, this means significantly higher project costs. In Kenya, for instance, the planned deployment of 500 MW of new solar capacity saw its budget swell by almost 15% after suppliers adjusted prices to reflect new tariffs in their home markets.
A Continent in Transition, and in Tension
Africa’s clean energy transformation is not happening in a vacuum; it’s unfolding in a highly contested geopolitical arena. China currently dominates global solar panel production, controlling over 80% of the supply chain from polysilicon to finished panels. It also plays a key role in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, a market projected to reach over US$150 billion by 2030.
But tensions between China and Western economies are triggering tariff battles and technology restrictions. For African states, which source most of their renewable equipment from Chinese factories, any escalation in this trade conflict could create delays, cost overruns, and even project cancellations.
Over 85% of renewable energy technologies deployed in Africa are imported. While countries like South Africa and Morocco are building modest manufacturing capacity, the continent as a whole remains far from energy technology self-sufficiency.
The Economics of Delay
Every delay in clean energy deployment carries a cost. PWC estimates that Africa needs US$2.6 trillion in clean energy investments by 2050 to meet its climate goals and provide universal electricity access. Currently, the continent attracts less than 3% of global renewable energy investment, despite housing nearly one-fifth of the world’s population.
Tariffs could deepen this investment gap. Higher equipment prices can derail the business case for large-scale solar farms, wind projects, and EV adoption. A study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) found that a 10% increase in renewable equipment costs could push project payback periods beyond the threshold that most African investors and governments consider viable.
Beyond Tariffs: Localisation and Industrial Policy
The solution is not merely to lobby for lower tariffs but to build resilience through local capacity. Countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, and Rwanda are exploring local assembly plants for solar panels and EV components. South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) now includes localisation requirements, ensuring that a percentage of project value is sourced domestically.
However, building such industries requires strategic policy alignment, from education and skills training to infrastructure investment. Without a deliberate industrial strategy, Africa risks becoming a passive consumer in the global clean energy transition, importing both the technology and the volatility of foreign markets.
Geopolitics as a Double-Edged Sword
While tariffs can hurt, they can also serve as a lever for industrial growth, if used wisely. Some African governments are considering selective tariffs on imported clean energy products to protect and nurture local industries. But without competitive domestic manufacturing, such tariffs risk raising prices without delivering jobs or technological know-how.
In a sense, Africa stands on a narrow ridge: lean too far towards open markets, and local industries may never take off; lean too far towards protectionism, and the clean energy transition could slow to a crawl. The art of policy here lies in balance, attracting investment while gradually building domestic capabilities.
A Call for Strategic Alliances
In navigating this terrain, Africa needs more than reactive policy; it needs strategic partnerships. Collaborative ventures with China, the EU, and the US balanced against each other, could secure technology transfer, training, and infrastructure investment. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a platform to scale regional manufacturing and create intra-African supply chains for clean energy technologies, reducing reliance on extra-continental imports.
The stakes are not just economic or environmental; they are existential. The world’s remaining carbon budget is shrinking, and Africa, already vulnerable to climate shocks, cannot afford a drawn-out transition. The continent’s energy choices over the next decade will determine not only its climate resilience but its geopolitical influence in a low-carbon world.
Walking the Tightrope
Tariffs and geopolitics are the undercurrents shaping Africa’s clean energy story. The danger is clear: if Africa does not chart a strategic path, it risks being buffeted by trade wars and left behind in the global renewable energy race. But with foresight, alliances, and a focus on local capacity, the continent can turn these challenges into catalysts for sustainable growth.
In this high-stakes game, Africa must remember that the clean energy transition is not just about megawatts and investment figures. It is about sovereignty, the power to decide its energy future without being at the mercy of distant capitals and their shifting political winds.
