The African automotive industry is entering a defining phase. According to the International Organisation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), South Africa and Morocco remain Africa’s top vehicle producers, with 599,755 and 559,645 units manufactured in 2024, respectively. Together, the two countries account for nearly all of Africa’s large-scale automotive production — a duopoly that underlines both the continent’s potential and its structural challenges.
While global automotive production reached 92 million vehicles in 2024, led by China, the United States, and Japan, Africa contributed a fraction. Yet the prominence of South Africa and Morocco shows that Africa is no longer absent from global automotive maps. Their trajectories matter not just nationally, but continentally, as Africa grapples with industrialisation, trade integration, and economic sovereignty.
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South Africa: An Industry Under Pressure
South Africa remains Africa’s largest automotive producer, but its position is under strain.
Output in 2024: 599,755 vehicles, down 5% year-on-year.
Global ranking: 20th.
Target shortfall: Well below the 784,509-unit benchmark set by the Automotive Masterplan 2035.
The industry is nearly a century old, with plants operated by global giants such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and Mercedes-Benz. The sector contributes over 5% of South Africa’s GDP and supports 100,000+ jobs, making it one of the country’s most strategic industries.
But headwinds are intensifying:
Imports from China are rising sharply, undercutting locally assembled cars.
Domestic demand is sluggish, leading to plant closures and 4,000 job losses in just two years.
Exports, once the industry’s lifeline, are faltering. The United States, South Africa’s second-largest auto export market, has imposed tariffs of up to 30% under President Donald Trump. Auto exports to the U.S. plunged 73% in Q1 2025, with April and May registering declines of 80% and 85%, respectively.
This collapse threatens not just factories in hubs like East London and Port Elizabeth, but the entire value chain of suppliers, logistics operators, and port infrastructure.
Morocco: The Rising Star
If South Africa represents legacy, Morocco represents momentum.
Output in 2024: 559,645 vehicles, up 5% year-on-year.
Global ranking: 23rd.
Growth trajectory: Second consecutive year of expansion.
Over the past decade, Morocco has transformed itself into a magnet for foreign investment in automotive manufacturing. Backed by tax incentives, export-friendly policies, and strategic geographic positioning, the country has attracted Renault, Stellantis (Peugeot, Citroën), and a growing ecosystem of suppliers.
Key drivers of Morocco’s rise:
Proximity to Europe: Fast shipping routes to Spain, France, and Italy.
Integrated value chains: Local production of parts, reducing dependence on imports.
Industrial policy: Government-backed strategies that emphasise exports, job creation, and renewable-powered manufacturing.
Morocco is positioning itself as Africa’s electric vehicle (EV) hub, with pilot projects already in motion to produce EV components for European markets. Unlike South Africa, whose export model leans heavily on the U.S., Morocco is anchored in EU supply chains, giving it insulation from U.S.-centric trade shocks.
Why This Matters for Africa
The rise — and struggles — of these two automotive powerhouses matter beyond national borders. Africa’s future industrialisation depends on scaling, replicating, and learning from its successes and failures.
1. Industrialisation and Value Chains
South Africa and Morocco prove that Africa can host globally competitive manufacturing industries. Both nations have cultivated automotive ecosystems — parts suppliers, logistics, skilled labour — that are critical for industrial takeoff. If extended to other African states, these ecosystems could anchor regional automotive hubs in West, East, and Central Africa.
2. Trade Integration under AfCFTA
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a framework to build regional supply chains. Imagine vehicles assembled in Morocco using components manufactured in Egypt, Nigeria, or Kenya, and exported tariff-free across Africa. This integration would lower costs, build intra-African trade, and reduce reliance on volatile overseas markets.
3. Strategic Shift from Imports
Africa’s biggest barrier is the flood of cheap used cars. In countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Nigeria, up to 80% of cars are imported second-hand vehicles, stifling demand for new, locally produced models. By scaling up domestic assembly, Africa can gradually substitute imports with homegrown products.
4. Geopolitical Leverage
China, the EU, and the U.S. are all competing for influence over Africa’s mineral and industrial future. Automotive manufacturing gives Africa a stronger bargaining position. Countries that can refine minerals (cobalt, lithium, manganese) into batteries, or assemble cars for regional and global markets, will have greater geopolitical weight.
Africa’s Untapped Demand
Despite Africa’s population of 1.3 billion, only 1.5 million new vehicles were sold across the continent in 2024 — less than India sells in a single month. Motorisation rates remain extremely low:
Nigeria: 44 vehicles per 1,000 people.
Global average: 180 vehicles per 1,000.
By 2030, over 500 million Africans are projected to enter the middle class. If vehicle demand grows alongside consumer spending, analysts estimate that annual car sales could surpass 10 million units in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.For context, that’s equivalent to Brazil’s current annual market.
This demand represents both a challenge and an opportunity: unless Africa develops its own automotive industry, the gap will be filled by foreign imports.
Africa’s automotive future hinges on a few critical shifts:
1.Policy Coherence: Governments must limit the flood of used cars, incentivize new vehicle assembly, and provide financing options for buyers.
2.Regional Hubs: South Africa and Morocco cannot carry the entire continent. New hubs in Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt must be cultivated to spread industrial benefits.
3.EV Integration: As global markets shift to electric vehicles, Africa has a rare chance to leapfrog into EV manufacturing — leveraging its mineral wealth to build batteries and vehicles.
4.Local Content: Building stronger supplier networks for components (tires, electronics, seats, batteries) will deepen industrial linkages and create jobs.
South Africa and Morocco are more than Africa’s automotive giants — they are the continent’s test cases for industrial ambition. Their factories, supply chains, and export models prove that Africa can compete in one of the world’s most complex industries. But their experiences also reveal the fragility of relying on external markets and the urgency of building regional demand.
The stakes are continental. If Africa seizes the moment — scaling production, protecting local industries, and harnessing AfCFTA — the automotive sector could become a pillar of economic transformation. If not, Africa risks remaining a consumer of foreign cars rather than a producer of its own.
The road ahead is long, but South Africa and Morocco have already paved the way.
