Botswana’s diamond story has been closely tied to De Beers, a partnership that transformed the Southern African nation into one of the world’s most prosperous mineral economies. But that story is now entering a new chapter. Beginning next month, Botswana’s state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC) will start selling diamonds directly to contracted buyers, marking a significant shift in the country’s strategy to exert greater control over its diamond value chain.
The new ten-year agreement signed in February 2024 between the Government of Botswana and De Beers marks a significant restructuring of the nation’s diamond sector, centred on greater local control and value retention. A major outcome of the deal is the increased allocation of diamonds to the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company (ODC), whose share of Debswana’s production rose from 25% to 30%, with a scheduled rise to 40% by the end of the contract period. This tangible shift in diamond volumes represents a strategic transfer of power from De Beers’ global marketing network to Botswana’s domestic market structures.
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Another defining element of the new framework is the removal of the non-compete clause that had long constrained ODC from engaging directly in contract sales. With this barrier lifted, Botswana now possesses the legal and commercial freedom to sell its diamonds independently, an essential step toward building a more diversified and self-sufficient diamond economy. ODC Managing Director Mmetla Masire emphasised that the company plans to channel roughly 40% of its production into new direct contract sales, while maintaining the remainder through auctions, partnerships, and local beneficiation initiatives such as cutting and polishing operations within Botswana.
Implementation of the new system is being approached with caution and precision. The first two contract sales, set for November 2025, are designed as pilot phases to test operational efficiency and market response before ODC expands the program fully in its third sale cycle. This phased rollout underscores Botswana’s deliberate approach to managing the transition, balancing ambition with strategic execution as the country takes fuller ownership of its diamond destiny.
The Current State and Volumes: Navigating a Perfect Storm
Botswana’s decision to expand Okavango Diamond Company’s (ODC) autonomy and sales strategy comes amid one of the toughest diamond market downturns in recent years, highlighting both the risk and the necessity of the move. Currently holding 30% of Debswana’s production, ODC typically generates around $500 million in annual sales. However, the global diamond industry has been hit by falling consumer demand, excess supply, and the rapid rise of lab-grown alternatives. As a result, ODC’s 2024 revenues dropped to about 60% of the previous year’s levels, exposing the vulnerability of Botswana’s diamond-dependent economy.
In response, ODC has taken deliberate steps to stabilise market conditions, including joining an industry-wide sales pause in 2023 to curb oversupply. Its recent auctions have shown modest positive margins, a notable turnaround from the steep losses recorded the year before, suggesting early signs of recovery. Yet, the wider economic fallout remains stark: with diamonds accounting for 30% of government revenue and 75% of foreign exchange, Botswana’s economy contracted by 3% in 2024, and the IMF predicts an additional 1% contraction in 2025. The country’s diamond reforms, therefore, are not just strategic—they are essential for long-term economic resilience.
This new diamond marketing strategy represents a bold restructuring of power dynamics within the global diamond trade, one that places the state in a position of greater control but also greater exposure. For Botswana, the shift offers direct benefits: it grants ODC enhanced market intelligence, stronger pricing leverage, and the ability to build independent customer relationships, all while stimulating local industrial growth through direct supply to domestic manufacturers. These factors combine to strengthen Botswana’s economic resilience and reduce dependence on De Beers. However, the move is not without risks; ODC must now shoulder full commercial responsibility, and the introduction of additional diamond supply into an already weak market could further pressure prices if not managed carefully.
From De Beers’ perspective, the deal secures access to Botswana’s diamond production for another decade but at the cost of reduced dominance and increased competition from its own government partner. Globally, this evolution signals a turning point: Botswana’s direct entry into contract sales introduces transparency and broader buyer choice into a market long controlled by a few dominant players. Yet, it also fragments the once-unified sales structure that De Beers pioneered, potentially leading to greater market volatility and a more complex trading environment. In essence, Botswana’s move redefines not just its own economic destiny but the very architecture of the diamond industry. It owns the resource.
Botswana’s evolving relationship with De Beers reflects a remarkable journey from dependency to dominance in the global diamond trade. In the decades following independence, De Beers managed nearly every aspect of Botswana’s diamond industry, generating wealth but centralising control and market insight abroad. The tide began to turn in 2013 with the creation of the Okavango Diamond Company (ODC), which gave Botswana its first direct foothold in marketing its own diamonds. That early step has now matured into a full strategic pivot, one where Botswana seeks not just revenue participation but full market engagement, intelligence, and control over its commercial destiny, marking a decisive move from patronage to partnership to predominance.
This strategic shift in diamond marketing stands as a continental milestone, a model of how African nations can move from passive participation to active leadership in global value chains. By taking greater control of its diamond sales, Botswana is redefining what resource nationalism can look like when driven by good governance, transparency, and long-term vision. The country’s approach demonstrates how stability and accountability can empower a state to capture not only the wealth from its resources but also the market intelligence and global positioning that come with it. Beyond Botswana, this development signals a broader awakening — one where African nations like Angola and Namibia could form a more unified, value-driven front in resource negotiations, gradually shifting the global centre of power and trade back toward the continent itself.
A Diamond Forged Under Pressure
Botswana’s decision to seize greater control of its diamond destiny is a direct response to both long-standing ambition and immediate market pressure. The struggling global diamond market is not just a problem for Botswana; it is the very crucible in which its new, more resilient economic model is being forged. By diversifying its sales channels, building its own clientele, and competing directly on the world stage, Botswana is mitigating the vulnerabilities of a single-commodity economy.
This is more than a new sales channel; it is a sovereign strategy for the 21st century. It signals that the future of African resource wealth will not be dictated solely in boardrooms in London or Antwerp, but increasingly in capitals like Gaborone, by nations that have learned the price of their treasures and are now mastering their value.
