President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2026 budget proposal, presented to a joint session of Nigeria’s National Assembly in December 2025, marks a clear strategic shift in the country’s fiscal priorities. Officially titled the “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” the ₦58.18 trillion (approximately US$41.6 billion) fiscal plan positions national security as the foremost government priority, allocating ₦5.41 trillion (about US$3.86 billion), the single largest sectoral allocation, to defence and internal security. This decisive emphasis responds to the decades-long crisis of insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence and other forms of violent crime that have eroded public safety, disrupted farming and commerce and deepened socio-economic distress across large parts of Nigeria.
Globally, nations confronting chronic insecurity increasingly recognise that peace is not merely a public good, but a precondition for economic growth, foreign investment and the sustainable wellbeing of citizens. Nigeria’s renewed focus aligns with this broader international understanding; without the restoration of order and stability, private sector confidence, productivity and cross-border trade remain constrained. In regional terms, West African states have faced similar pressures, with multilateral institutions emphasising that enhanced security cooperation is fundamental to achieving lasting development.
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The 2026 Nigerian budget, therefore, sits within a global policy framework where security, governance and economic stability are treated as interdependent imperatives. While the budget’s specifics are nationally tailored, the overarching strategy reflects international best practice in fiscal planning by embedding security within a wider growth and reform agenda.
The ₦5.41 trillion (US$3.86 billion) security allocation reaffirms a pattern established in the previous two years of the Tinubu administration, wherein defence and security have consistently attracted the largest shares of budgetary resources. This reflects continuing insecurity challenges, particularly in the North-East, North-West and North-Central regions, where terrorist groups, bandits and criminal networks have long operated with impunity, undermining governance and displacing populations.
The 2026 budget is framed against a projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion (US$24.52 billion) and total expenditure of ₦58.18 trillion (US$41.6 billion), resulting in a fiscal deficit of ₦23.85 trillion (approximately US$17.04 billion), equivalent to 4.28 per cent of GDP. These figures underscore the delicate balancing act the federal government faces in financing urgent public priorities while maintaining fiscal discipline. The budget’s macroeconomic assumptions are anchored on a crude oil price benchmark of US$64.85 per barrel, an oil production target of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the US dollar, reflecting Nigeria’s continued reliance on hydrocarbon revenues even as it pursues economic diversification.
The 2026 proposal is not simply about spending more on security; it reflects a recalibrated approach to how security is conceptualised and operationalised. In his address, President Tinubu underscored a commitment to modernising the Nigerian Armed Forces and security agencies through improved equipment, advanced surveillance capabilities, enhanced logistics and better welfare support. Intelligence-driven policing and strengthened border security form core pillars of this approach, complemented by community-based peacebuilding initiatives designed to address local grievances and reduce the drivers of conflict.
A defining element of the administration’s security doctrine is the designation of all armed non-state actors as terrorists. This classification encompasses bandits, militias, kidnappers, violent gangs and cult groups, as well as their sponsors, financiers and facilitators. By closing long-standing legal and operational gaps, the policy aims to enhance deterrence, improve coordination across security agencies and allow for more decisive responses to persistent threats.
The human toll of insecurity in Nigeria remains profound. Between 2011 and 2024, an estimated 91,740 Nigerians lost their lives to insurgency, communal clashes and other forms of violent conflict. Beyond fatalities, insecurity has driven large-scale displacement, undermined rural livelihoods and forced many farmers off their land, contributing directly to reduced agricultural output, food shortages and inflationary pressures in affected regions.
By linking security spending to broader economic and social objectives, the 2026 budget reflects an understanding that food security, rural stability and economic recovery are inseparable from public safety. Improved security conditions are expected to support the government’s parallel investments in agriculture, market access and climate-resilient farming, helping to stabilise food supply chains and restore livelihoods in vulnerable communities.
Fiscal Prudence and Broader Social Infrastructure
Although security dominates the fiscal framework, the 2026 budget also allocates substantial resources to other strategic sectors. Infrastructure receives ₦3.56 trillion (US$2.54 billion) to improve transport networks and economic connectivity, while education is allocated ₦3.52 trillion (US$2.51 billion) and healthcare ₦2.48 trillion (US$1.77 billion). These allocations signal a recognition that long-term stability depends not only on military strength, but also on investments in human capital and essential services. Recent interventions, including expanded access to tertiary education financing and increased health sector funding through international partnerships, are positioned as complementary pillars supporting national resilience.
Towards a Secure and Prosperous Future
Nigeria’s 2026 budget arrives at a defining moment in the country’s development trajectory. By placing national security at the centre of its fiscal strategy, the Tinubu administration has framed peace and stability as the foundation upon which economic reform, social investment and shared prosperity must rest. The effectiveness of this agenda will ultimately be judged not by allocation size alone, but by implementation discipline, institutional accountability and tangible improvements in safety, livelihoods and investor confidence.
In an era where global experience increasingly confirms that security and development are inseparable, Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal choices reflect a sober acknowledgement of reality: without a secure environment, economic ambition cannot translate into broad-based progress.
