A March 2026 review mission by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Rwanda is making measurable and credible progress towards establishing a nuclear power programme. The rigorous assessment, conducted by a team of 10 experts using the agency’s Milestones Approach, validated the country’s steady advancement in developing the required infrastructure.
The mission identified three “good practices” in Rwanda’s nuclear programme worthy of emulation: strong government commitment, with the Rwanda Atomic Energy Board functioning as an effective coordinating body; proactive stakeholder engagement that has built early public understanding; and comprehensive emergency preparedness planning undertaken well before any reactors are constructed.
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In addition, the team documented tangible achievements, including a draft nuclear law, ongoing regulatory framework enhancements, and completed site surveys identifying candidates for a small modular reactor (SMR) project.
While the IAEA stopped short of a full endorsement, it offered key recommendations. These include finalising the comprehensive report to support national decision-making, completing the review of national legislation, and further strengthening policy and strategic frameworks. Mission leader Mehmet Ceyhan commended Rwanda’s level of preparation and coordination, while Minister of Infrastructure Jimmy Gasore reaffirmed the country’s commitment to a safe, transparent, and internationally compliant nuclear programme.
President Paul Kagame underscored the strategic importance of nuclear energy at a Paris nuclear summit, describing it as central to Rwanda’s long-term development agenda. The country plans to invest up to US$6 billion—an ambitious commitment relative to its 2025 GDP of approximately US$16 billion. The goal is for nuclear power to supply 60–70% of electricity in the long term, with the first SMR expected to become operational in the early 2030s. Analyst Tshepo Kgadima estimates that the investment could generate up to 3,000 megawatts, supporting the growth of energy-intensive industries.
The shift towards nuclear energy is driven by the structural limitations of existing power sources. Hydropower currently accounts for 43.9% of electricity generation but remains vulnerable to unpredictable rainfall patterns. With hydropower resources nearing full exploitation and methane gas extraction from Lake Kivu capped at 300 megawatts, the country faces a clear ceiling on conventional energy expansion.
This constraint is particularly significant given strong economic growth. In 2025, GDP expanded by 9.4% to 23.39 trillion Rwandan francs, with the industrial sector growing at 11%, though still representing just 22% of the economy. Reliable baseload power is therefore essential to sustain industrialisation and economic transformation.
Rwanda’s nuclear journey has been deliberate and structured. Following its accession to the IAEA in 2011, the country signed a cooperation agreement with Russia’s Rosatom in 2018 and concluded a deal in 2019 to establish a nuclear science centre in Kigali. The pivotal year of 2020 saw parliamentary ratification of key agreements, cabinet approval of IAEA conventions, and the establishment of the Rwanda Atomic Energy Board.
Today, Rwanda is positioning itself as a continental leader in nuclear innovation. Its strategy includes pioneering SMR deployment suitable for smaller power grids, hosting the 2026 Nuclear Energy Innovation Summit for Africa, advocating for reforms in international nuclear financing, and expanding the use of radioisotopes in medicine, agriculture, and water resource management.
The country’s pursuit of a first-mover advantage is underpinned by regulatory rigour recognised by the IAEA, sustained investment in human capital—with over 200 students trained abroad—and active diplomatic engagement at global energy forums. However, significant challenges remain. Financing the US$6 billion programme will likely depend on vendor financing arrangements; technical capacity development will take time; public acceptance must be carefully managed; geopolitical considerations may arise from international partnerships; and grid integration will require advanced planning.
Looking ahead, several trends may work in Rwanda’s favour. The maturation of SMR technologies by the early 2030s, opportunities for regional electricity exports through the East African Power Pool, the emergence of a domestic nuclear supply chain, expanded applications in healthcare and agriculture, and evolving climate finance frameworks all present strategic advantages.
Ultimately, the IAEA review validates Rwanda’s methodical preparation and strategic intent. It confirms that the country’s pursuit of nuclear energy is a calculated bet—that reliable and affordable electricity will unlock industrial growth, accelerate economic transformation, and support its ambition of achieving high-income status by 2050.
