Botswana is seeking a larger role in the global diamond industry at a time when the business faces declining prices, changing consumer preferences and pressure from laboratory-grown alternatives. On 9 November 2026, President Duma Boko announced that the country plans to double its stake in De Beers from 15% to 30% as part of a proposed transaction involving Anglo American’s 85% holding.
In his address to Parliament, Boko confirmed that Botswana had selected the Global Diamond Consortium (GDC), led by former De Beers chief executive Gareth Penny, as its preferred bidder for Anglo American’s stake. If completed, the arrangement would make Botswana De Beers’ largest single shareholder, potentially giving it greater influence over the company’s strategic direction.
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The proposed transaction also involves the governments of Namibia and Angola, while Oman has been identified by the consortium as a participant in discussions. Companies reported to be involved in negotiations include diamond manufacturers Diarough, Pluczenik and Grandview Klein Diamonds, alongside jewellery businesses such as Signet and Richemont. However, the final ownership structure and distribution of shares have not been disclosed.
The financial terms remain under negotiation. Industry reporting has put the proposed consideration for Anglo American’s 85% holding at approximately $1 billion, comprising $750 million upfront and $250 million deferred. A further $500 million capital injection into De Beers has also been discussed. These are reported proposals, not confirmed final commitments. Anglo American has said it will continue working with Botswana, other governments and the consortium towards binding transaction documents.
The timing is significant. Botswana’s economy has been under pressure from the prolonged diamond-market downturn. Rough diamond prices fell 23%, from $129 per carat at the end of 2024 to $99 a year later. The country held approximately 12 million carats in diamond inventories at the end of December 2025, nearly twice its 6.5-million-carat target. Mineral revenues were estimated at 10.3 billion pula for the 2025–26 financial year, well below the historical annual average of 25.3 billion pula.
The fiscal implications are also important. Moody’s downgraded Botswana’s sovereign credit rating from Baa1 to Baa2 in September 2026, citing pressure on public finances. The agency warned that further deterioration could follow if the government materially increased its investment in De Beers through debt-financed arrangements. The cost of acquiring the additional shares and the financing method will therefore be central to the transaction’s long-term value for the country.
De Beers’ own financial performance illustrates the commercial risks. In 2025, the company recorded an underlying EBITDA loss of $511 million, compared with a $25 million loss in 2024. Production fell 12% to 21.7 million carats, while its average realised price declined 7% to $142 per carat.
In the first half of 2026, revenue fell to $1.6 billion from $2 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier. The average realised price dropped 32% to $105 per carat. Although production in Botswana increased 43% to 10.3 million carats, De Beers attributed much of the rise to the comparison with the previous year’s extended maintenance at its Orapa operation. Higher production alone has not resolved the company’s wider market challenges.
Competition from laboratory-grown diamonds adds another structural concern. These stones have expanded the range of lower-priced options available to consumers, putting pressure on natural diamonds, particularly in lower-value categories. De Beers reported that demand for larger, higher-quality natural diamonds remained more resilient in the first half of 2026, while smaller and lower-quality stones continued to face pricing pressure from synthetic alternatives.
Botswana’s proposed investment also needs to be understood alongside its existing relationship with De Beers through Debswana, the 50–50 joint venture responsible for much of the country’s diamond production. Under agreements announced in 2025, Debswana’s mining licences were extended to 2054, while the share of rough diamonds made available to the state-owned Okavango Diamond Company is scheduled to rise gradually to 50%. Botswana also formally established a sovereign wealth fund in May 2025 to manage state assets and support long-term investment and economic diversification.
These arrangements serve different purposes. Debswana governs a major part of Botswana’s domestic diamond production, while a larger De Beers shareholding would give the country a greater interest in an international business with mining, marketing and technology operations across several markets.
Boko has also presented the investment as an opportunity to participate in advanced technology through Element Six, De Beers’ synthetic-diamond business. The company’s industrial applications include technologies relevant to high-performance computing and data infrastructure. This could give the proposed investment significance beyond the traditional natural-diamond market, although the commercial benefits will depend on future projects and returns.
A 30% shareholding, however, does not automatically confer control. Botswana’s influence will depend on voting rights, board representation, shareholder agreements and the final ownership structure. Nor does a larger stake guarantee higher public revenue. Returns will depend on the purchase price, financing costs, company performance and dividend policy.
For the investment to support broader national development, ownership would need to be accompanied by measurable commitments to local procurement, skills development, technology transfer and value addition. These measures could help translate a larger stake into opportunities for domestic businesses and workers.
Botswana’s proposed move therefore represents both an opportunity and a financial responsibility. It could strengthen the country’s position in an industry closely connected to its economic history, while opening access to wider commercial and technological opportunities. But the final terms, governance protections and financing arrangements will determine the extent of the benefits.
For Botswana and other African resource-producing economies, the wider lesson is that ownership is only one part of economic transformation. The more important measure is whether control over strategic assets creates lasting public value, strengthens domestic capabilities and reduces dependence on a single commodity.
