Africa’s oil sector is at a historic crossroads. With landmark projects under construction and more than $100 billion in investments projected over the next 25 years, the continent stands on the verge of a petroleum refining revolution. According to the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook, Africa is expected to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity by 2030—one of the fastest downstream expansions globally. This wave of refinery development marks a decisive moment: will Africa remain dependent on fuel imports, or will it build resilient, integrated refining systems capable of securing its own energy future?
The Engines of Change: Mega Projects Across Africa
At the heart of this transformation are mega projects that promise to reshape the dynamics of energy and trade. Nigeria leads the charge with the 650,000-bpd Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already redefining West Africa’s fuel landscape. The refinery, alongside the upcoming 200,000-bpd BUA Refinery in Akwa Ibom, positions Nigeria as the anchor of continental refining growth.
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Angola, long an exporter of crude but importer of refined fuels, is racing to complete the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and the 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery. Meanwhile, Uganda’s 60,000-bpd Hoima Refinery aims to capitalise on the Lake Albert basin, while smaller modular refineries are rising in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo, and Nigeria.
In North Africa, projects such as Algeria’s Hassi Messaoud, Libya’s Ubari, and Egypt’s Suez Canal and Red Sea ports, including the Soukhna refinery, aim to reduce import dependence and capture higher downstream margins. Together, these efforts underscore a pan-African movement toward energy sovereignty.
Why Refining Matters for Africa
For decades, Africa’s paradox has been stark: the continent holds some of the world’s richest crude oil reserves yet remains heavily dependent on imported refined products. In 2023 alone, sub-Saharan Africa imported nearly half a million barrels per day of petrol, draining scarce foreign exchange reserves and exposing nations to global price volatility.
New refining capacity could reverse this pattern. By meeting rising domestic demand—projected to grow from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050—Africa can save billions annually in import costs, strengthen local currencies, and boost energy security. At the same time, excess refining capacity opens the door for exports, positioning African nations as suppliers to both regional and global markets.
Dangote: A Symbol of Africa’s Energy Ambition
Nowhere is this shift clearer than in Nigeria. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the largest single-train refinery in the world, has already turned Nigeria from Africa’s top petrol importer into a net exporter of refined products. Between June and July 2025 alone, the refinery exported one million tonnes of petrol, while also supplying diesel and jet fuel to West and Central Africa.
The economic impact is immediate. Nigeria’s fuel imports have plummeted from 500,000 bpd in 2023 to just 88,000 bpd by early 2025. This drop is expected to save the country up to $10 billion in foreign exchange annually—a dramatic shift for an economy long hampered by import dependency.
Beyond regional supply, Dangote has entered the global stage: in early 2025, the United States imported 1.7 million barrels of jet fuel from the facility, while Saudi Aramco purchased more than 130 million liters. Africa, once on the margins of global refined product trade, is now a serious player.
The Strategic Stakes: Beyond Energy
Africa’s refining expansion is not just about fuel—it is about sovereignty, trade balance, and continental integration. By processing its crude at home, Africa captures more value in the supply chain, creates skilled jobs, and develops industrial ecosystems around petrochemicals, logistics, and infrastructure.
Refining also intersects with Africa’s continental free trade ambitions. Harmonising fuel standards, improving cross-border logistics, and aligning regulatory frameworks under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could transform refined products into one of the continent’s most traded commodities, boosting intra-African trade and reducing reliance on foreign markets.
At a global level, expanded refining reshapes trade flows. European refiners, long dependent on African crude exports, may see reduced supplies as more barrels are processed domestically. This shift increases Africa’s leverage in energy diplomacy, positioning it as both a crude supplier and a refined product exporter.
The Challenges That Could Derail Progress
Yet Africa’s refining future is not guaranteed. The continent faces several structural risks:
• Operational reliability: Outages at the Dangote Refinery in 2025 forced a temporary surge in fuel imports, revealing how fragile the system still is.
• Underutilisation of assets: Many African refineries, including Nigeria’s state-owned plants, have historically run below capacity or fallen dormant due to poor maintenance and corruption.
• Fuel quality standards: Disparate regulations across countries—ranging from high-sulphur (1,000 ppm) to cleaner fuels (50 ppm)—threaten regional integration and discourage investment in advanced units.
• Financing hurdles: Africa requires over $40 billion by 2030 and another $60 billion thereafter to upgrade and expand refining. Unlocking capital will require policy stability, risk guarantees, and mobilisation of Africa’s $4 trillion in pension funds, insurance assets, and sovereign wealth.
The Path Forward: Building Resilience
To avoid replacing import dependency with outdated capacity, Africa must prioritise:
1. Upgrading refineries to meet modern fuel standards.
2. Streamlining approvals and cutting bureaucratic red tape to accelerate projects.
3. Mobilising domestic capital, with smart de-risking policies to attract private investors.
4. Strengthening regional trade, harmonising specifications, and investing in pipelines, depots, and storage.
5. Building strategic reserves to cushion supply disruptions.
6. Investing in human capital—engineers, financiers, regulators—who can sustain the sector.
The vision, as outlined by the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), is of a continent that not only fuels itself but becomes a global hub of competitive, sustainable refining.
Africa’s Defining Energy Decade
Africa’s refining revolution represents more than an industrial upgrade—it is a redefinition of the continent’s place in global energy. With projects like Dangote’s leading the way, Africa is demonstrating that it can not only produce crude but also refine, export, and compete on the global stage.
The next decade will determine whether Africa cements this progress into lasting sovereignty or slips back into cycles of dependence and underutilization. The stakes are high, but the prize is transformative: an Africa that powers itself, shapes global markets, and builds prosperity from its own resources.
