Historically aligned with the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, Africa now confronts a modern geopolitical remix, marked by resurgent global rivalries, shifting economic poles and growing pressure to choose alliances more strategically. As global powers recalibrate their influence in an increasingly multipolar world, Africa must decide whether to remain a chorus of neutral voices or harmonise with new partners.
Africa’s economy, once overshadowed by external dependencies and internal fragilities, is regaining its rhythm. In 2024, the African Development Bank reported that 41 African countries are expected to post stronger growth than in the previous year, placing Africa as the world’s second-fastest-growing region after developing Asia. East Africa, in particular, is projected to expand at a rate of 3.7% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025, higher than the global average.
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However, economic gains are tempered by underlying risks. Public debt in many African countries remains above pre-pandemic levels, with more than 20 nations facing a high risk of debt distress. Inflation continues to erode purchasing power, while insecurity, from insurgencies in the Sahel to conflicts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, threatens growth consistency. The World Bank projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to rebound to 3.4% in 2024, but warns that the pace may not suffice to significantly reduce poverty or support inclusive economic development.
Between Principles and Pragmatism
Africa’s post-colonial history is deeply entwined with the Non-Aligned Movement, which offered the continent a neutral path amid Cold War tensions. The 19th Non-Aligned Movement Summit, held in Kampala, Uganda, in January 2024, marked a renewed embrace of this ethos. Thirty heads of state from 120 member countries gathered to reaffirm their commitment to a world order not dominated by the interests of any single power bloc.
This revival is not rooted in nostalgia but in necessity. As the United States, China, Russia and the European Union vie for strategic footholds in Africa, the continent is leveraging its collective voice to avoid becoming a mere arena for power competition. Non-alignment is no longer just a political philosophy. It is an assertion of agency and an effort to engage with all powers without subservience to any.
While Africa professes neutrality, it is not isolationist. The continent is rapidly forging new partnerships aligned with its ambitions. Trade with China, for instance, reached $282 billion in 2023, cementing China’s position as Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner. With more than $51 billion pledged in long-term investment across manufacturing, infrastructure and mining, Beijing’s interest in Africa is both unmistakable and strategic.
South Korea has also entered the diplomatic arena. In June 2024, the inaugural Korea–Africa Summit convened 48 African nations to discuss technology transfer, critical mineral trade and development financing. The outcome was a joint action plan focused on expanding industrial cooperation and digital connectivity. Japan, Turkey, India and Gulf states have likewise deepened their African engagements, offering aid, arms and investment in return for strategic influence.
This expansion of partnerships is not without controversy. Critics highlight the rising debt burdens associated with Chinese loans and the transactional nature of some resource-based deals. Yet African leaders argue that diversifying allies enhances sovereignty. The strategy at play is not about picking sides. It is about maximising leverage and safeguarding national interests in a competitive global arena.
The Sahel’s Shift: Alliance Over Alignment
The Sahel region offers a microcosm of Africa’s shifting diplomacy. In July 2024, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger formalised a new confederation, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Born from shared grievances against former colonial powers and ongoing security crises, the AES has pledged deeper military, economic and political cooperation, including plans for a joint currency and integrated infrastructure projects.
These nations have pivoted away from traditional Western alliances, expelling French troops, suspending cooperation with ECOWAS, and strengthening military and trade relations with Russia and Turkey. Niger, notably, emerged as Africa’s fastest-growing economy in 2024, with GDP growth reaching 9.9 percent, largely fuelled by mining and energy investment. The Sahel’s realignment signals a broader trend. Intra-African and South–South alliances are rising, rooted in self-determination rather than dependence.
Standing Tall Amid the Storm
Africa today resembles the baobab tree, deep-rooted, enduring and resilient against global uncertainty. Yet even the baobab must sway in the storm. The continent’s quest for an independent path must reconcile with internal contradictions: governance deficits, corruption, electoral volatility and fragile institutions.
The scramble for Africa’s rare earth minerals, cobalt and lithium, which are critical to the global energy transition, makes sustained neutrality increasingly challenging. Africa’s resources are no longer a curse but a currency in the geopolitical marketplace. The imperative now is to negotiate from a position of strength, not subservience.
Balancing Autonomy with Opportunity
Africa’s place in the new world order is both delicate and decisive. Its burgeoning youth population, expected to represent nearly 42 percent of the world’s youth by 2030, offers a demographic dividend few other regions possess. Its natural wealth, if wisely managed, could fund the continent’s ascent rather than fuel its fragmentation.
To capitalise on this moment, African nations must invest in human capital, fortify democratic governance and deepen regional integration. Institutions such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provide a framework for collective bargaining and economic resilience. Strategic autonomy, not merely political non-alignment, must become the guiding doctrine.
In the final analysis, Africa is not simply reacting to global shifts. It is beginning to shape them. Whether through cautious non-alignment or carefully cultivated alliances, the continent is asserting a new form of leadership, one that seeks to transform decades of marginalisation into an era of global protagonism.
