Ghana’s Economy Beats 2025 Forecasts with Non-Oil Growth

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Ghana’s economy in 2025 is experiencing impressive growth, with data suggesting it will exceed projected growth targets for the rest of the year. According to a report released by IC Research, the West African country recorded a real GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, an encouraging sign that has surpassed most forecasts and ignited optimism among analysts.

 

The publication, titled “Ghana’s Q1 2025 Real GDP Growth: Green Shoots in Tight Soil,” credits the performance to robust momentum in non-oil sectors, which have offset continued contraction in the oil and gas industry.

 

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Initial projections for Ghana’s 2025 GDP growth had been conservative, with estimates ranging between 4.5% and 4.8%. However, the Q1 growth of 5.3%, up from 4.9% in the same period of 2024, signals stronger-than-expected economic resilience—even in the face of ongoing fiscal tightening measures.

 

While IC Research remains cautious, retaining a forecast range of 3.8% to 4.8% for now—it acknowledged that “full-year 2025 overall growth is likely to exceed the upper-band forecast,” depending on second-quarter performance.

 

Non-Oil Sector Leads Growth

The non-oil economy continues to anchor Ghana’s economic expansion, registering a 6.8% year-on-year growth in Q1. This performance underscores the growing diversification of Ghana’s economy, an important shift as global oil market volatility continues to challenge energy-exporting nations.

 

“This reflects strong underlying momentum in the real economy and has significantly boosted our optimism about Ghana’s growth outlook for 2025, despite the downside risks posed by fiscal tightening,” IC Research observed.

 

Growth’s Leading Industries

Ghana’s Q1 2025 GDP data reveals broad-based economic expansion, with several key sectors recording significant growth. Leading the charge is the fishing sector, which posted a remarkable 16.6% growth, likely fueled by improved marine infrastructure, favourable weather conditions, and heightened export demand.

 

The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector followed with 13.1% growth, driven by the country’s ongoing digital transformation, increased internet penetration, and a surge in tech-enabled services and startups.

 

Finance and insurance, growing at 9.3%, signals renewed investor confidence, a stable monetary environment, and wider access to financial services, particularly through mobile banking and fintech platforms. Similarly, transport and storage rose 8.6%, boosted by infrastructure investments and increased regional trade flows.

 

Trade (7.1%), crops and cocoa (6.7%), and manufacturing (6.6%) underscore the economy’s balanced structure. The strong showing in agriculture, particularly in cocoa—the backbone of Ghana’s export earnings, suggests improved yields and favorable global pricing. Meanwhile, manufacturing growth hints at gains from industrial policy and import substitution efforts under the Ghana Beyond Aid agenda.

 

Overall, this diverse sectoral mix not only reflects Ghana’s resilience amid global uncertainties but also signals strategic movement toward a multi-sectoral, inclusive growth model—anchored in services, agriculture, and industry.

 

Resilience in the Agricultural Sector

Perhaps the most noteworthy performer in Q1 was the agriculture sector, which recorded a 6.6% year-on-year expansion, primarily due to a 6.7% increase in the crops sub-sector. This outcome surprised many analysts, who had expected slower recovery in the sector.

 

According to IC Research, these agricultural gains are already influencing broader macroeconomic indicators, particularly food inflation, which has been on a steady decline since February 2025. Notably, this performance precedes the full rollout of the government’s latest agricultural support programs, indicating further potential upside in the coming quarters.

 

“We note that the impressive performance in the crops sector has yet to reflect the government’s ongoing investments in agriculture, which aim to support lower food inflation,” the report stated.

 

Optimism Amid Fiscal Tightening

While Q1 figures have boosted confidence, IC Research continues to urge caution. The firm highlights that Ghana’s fiscal consolidation efforts, aimed at stabilising public debt and curbing inflation, may dampen growth in the second half of the year.

 

Still, the report maintains a largely optimistic tone. Ghana’s ability to deliver robust growth under fiscal constraints points to deepening economic resilience and a maturing, diversified economic structure.

 

As Ghana enters the second half of 2025, policymakers and analysts are closely watching Q2 results to confirm whether the strong Q1 momentum can be sustained amid fiscal pressures.

 

Ghana’s Q1 2025 performance paints the picture of an economy transitioning beyond dependence on oil exports. With vigorous non-oil sector growth, a resilient agricultural sector, and improving macroeconomic conditions, the country is well-positioned to outperform earlier projections.

 

Challenges remain, particularly in managing public spending and inflation—but the broad-based nature of the growth suggests that Ghana is laying the groundwork for a more sustainable and inclusive economic future.

 

If current trends persist, Ghana may not only exceed its full-year GDP targets but also offer a compelling case study for other emerging African economies pursuing resilient and diversified economic growth.

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