The world stands at the cusp of a new energy era, one rewriting the rules of power, influence, and survival. The decisions made over the next decade will not merely recast Africa’s economic horizons; they will reshape the architecture of global geopolitics. At the heart of this unfolding drama are critical minerals, lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel, graphite, and rare earths resources now indispensable to the engines of clean energy, digital economies, and modern military systems.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) had reported that the market for these minerals more than doubled within five years, reaching roughly USD 320 billion in 2022. Demand is forecast to more than double again by 2030 and could quadruple by 2050, with annual revenues projected to surpass USD 400 billion. This dramatic rise has placed Africa firmly on the radar of global powers, who increasingly view the continent as both a solution and a battleground in what analysts now describe as the “new mineral cold war.”
READ ALSO: Rethinking Youth Empowerment in Africa’s Informal Economy
The Unquenchable Thirst for Minerals
Once considered obscure, critical minerals today rank among the world’s most sought-after commodities. Under global net-zero emission scenarios, lithium demand could increase more than eightfold by 2040. Graphite, essential for electric-vehicle batteries, may rise nearly sixfold; both nickel and cobalt are expected to more than double. Copper, the backbone of electricity transmission could see demand grow by more than 50 per cent.
These projections are already materialising. In 2023, global investment in mineral exploration and production grew by more than 10 per cent, with lithium attracting the lion’s share of new capital. By 2024, demand for lithium had risen nearly 30 per cent year-on-year, well above the long-term average growth rate of around 10 per cent. Graphite, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths also posted increases of between 6 and 8 per cent in the same period.
This surge reflects not just the needs of electric vehicles and renewable energy but also the demands of military modernisation and digital infrastructure. Satellites, advanced weaponry, and 5G networks rely heavily on rare earths and other specialised minerals. Put simply, minerals once treated as secondary are now central to the 21st century’s most strategic ambitions.
Demand Racing Ahead of Supply
Yet supply is failing to match the appetite. While demand is expanding at double-digit rates, mining and refining capacity is growing more slowly, particularly for lithium and graphite. By 2035, copper alone faces a projected supply shortfall of around 30 per cent, unless massive investments are made in new mines, recycling, and substitute technologies.
This imbalance is already fuelling volatility. Prices for lithium and cobalt have fluctuated wildly in recent years, reflecting the pressures of constrained supply and uneven access to refining capacity. For Africa, where much of the world’s untapped reserves lie, this creates both opportunity and risk: opportunity to emerge as a supplier of choice, and risk of becoming ensnared in destabilising cycles of boom and bust.
Africa: From Prospect to Powerhouse
Africa’s role in this shifting landscape is becoming impossible to ignore. The continent holds an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s known mineral reserves, ranging from cobalt and copper to lithium, graphite, and manganese. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) alone supplies more than 70 per cent of global cobalt output, while Zambia remains a leading copper producer. Mozambique and Tanzania are emerging players in graphite and nickel, while Zimbabwe and Namibia are positioning themselves as lithium hubs.
The IEA projects that Africa’s mineral export revenues could increase by at least 65 per cent by 2030, driven largely by copper and battery-related minerals. If harnessed effectively, this could finance infrastructure, stimulate industrialisation, and provide a foundation for more resilient economies.
Several countries have already taken steps to capture greater value. Namibia and Zimbabwe have banned the export of raw lithium, requiring local processing and job creation. Zambia and the DRC have signed a joint agreement to build an integrated regional value chain for electric-vehicle batteries, seeking to shift from raw exports to finished products. South Africa, with its vast platinum reserves, is investing heavily in hydrogen technologies, linking its mineral wealth to future clean-energy markets.
China’s Commanding Hold on Supply Chains
Yet Africa’s mineral wealth tells only half the story. Processing and refining the stages that unlock the real value of minerals are overwhelmingly controlled by China. Beijing dominates nearly 80 per cent of rare earth processing and over 60 per cent of lithium refining. Even in cobalt, where Africa produces the majority of the raw ore, more than 70 per cent is exported to China for processing before it enters global markets.
This dominance has translated into geopolitical leverage. In 2023, China imposed export restrictions on gallium and germanium, critical to semiconductors, sending shockwaves through Western industries. By 2024, similar measures on graphite further underscored Beijing’s ability to weaponise supply chains. For the United States, Europe, and Japan, dependence on China is no longer merely an economic challenge; it has become a national security vulnerability.
Western Realignment: Turning Eyes Toward Africa
In response, Western governments and corporations are recalibrating their strategies. The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act, passed in 2024, explicitly names Africa as a priority for partnerships, promising financing, technology transfer, and environmental safeguards. The United States, through the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), has invested in Tanzania’s Kabanga nickel project and is negotiating direct supply agreements to bypass Chinese intermediaries.
Even India, often overlooked in this conversation, is stepping up. With its growing electric-vehicle market and ambitions in renewable energy, New Delhi has sought exploration rights in African lithium deposits and is offering technology-sharing agreements to secure supplies.
For the West, the strategy is clear: Africa is both the alternative to China and the stage on which global rivalries will play out. For Africa, the challenge is equally clear: how to ensure these new partnerships yield sustainable benefits rather than replicate extractive patterns of the past.
Opportunity Framed by Risk
The mineral boom presents Africa with a historic opportunity, but the risks are profound. Weak governance, corruption, and illicit trade continue to plague many resource-rich countries. In the DRC, artisanal cobalt mining remains linked to child labour and environmental damage. Unless stronger governance structures are enforced, the mineral rush could deepen inequalities rather than drive transformation.
At present, African countries capture only about 40 per cent of the potential revenue from their mineral resources. The remainder is lost through underpricing, tax evasion, and the export of raw materials with little domestic value addition. Without a shift in policy, Africa risks once again being a supplier of raw wealth for others’ industrial revolutions while missing its own.
The mineral contest is not unfolding in isolation. The IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook outlines pathways for balancing supply, demand, and sustainability, while the G7 and World Bank are investing in traceability and transparency mechanisms to ensure ethical sourcing. Discussions around a Global Minerals Trust, reminiscent of Bretton Woods-era models, are gaining momentum as a means of stabilising markets and coordinating investments.
Africa is not without its own frameworks. The Africa Mining Vision (AMV), adopted by the African Union, provides a blueprint for ensuring that mineral wealth translates into broad-based development. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers an opportunity to integrate regional value chains, making it possible for minerals to be processed, transformed, and traded within Africa before reaching global markets.
If these frameworks are leveraged effectively, Africa could shift from being a passive supplier to an active shaper of the global mineral economy.
A Defining Decade for Africa and the World
The new mineral cold war is no longer an abstraction, it is the defining contest of our time. For China, maintaining its stranglehold on processing is a question of economic and political strength. For the West, diversifying away from Beijing’s dominance is a strategic necessity. For Africa, this is a rare moment of leverage: the chance to transform mineral wealth into lasting prosperity and global influence.
The decisions African leaders make in the coming decade will determine whether the continent becomes merely the arena of a new great-power rivalry or the architect of a more balanced global order. With bold leadership, firm governance, and visionary policies, Africa can seize this moment to redefine not just its own destiny but also the contours of global energy and economic security.
Africa’s mineral wealth is more than an economic asset. It is a cornerstone of the world’s collective future. Whether it becomes a foundation for transformation or another missed opportunity depends on the resolve of the present generation of leaders.
