South Africa’s recent surge in thermal coal exports to Israel lies a far more layered story, one of economic necessity, diplomacy, and the hard choices. While South Africa’s government champions the Palestinian cause on the world stage, its private mining sector is sending record volumes of coal to Israeli power stations. This isn’t just a trade anomaly; it’s a revealing case study in how global supply chains, domestic pressures, and historical ties interact in a time of geopolitical tension.
In the three months ending November 2024, South African coal exports to Israel rose 87% year-on-year to 474,000 metric tonnes, with projections indicating a continued climb. This spike directly followed Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s July 2025 decree that fully halted his country’s coal exports to Israel, previously supplying 41% of Israel’s coal imports, on moral grounds relating to the Gaza conflict. With Russia’s share also dwindling below 3%, a supply void emerged, and South African miners moved decisively to capture it.
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By the end of 2025, South Africa is projected to supply 55% of Israel’s seaborne coal imports, a more than threefold increase from 2024. This commercial pivot stands in stark contrast to South Africa’s diplomatic posture, which includes leading a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The government, however, has drawn a clear line between state policy and private trade, with Trade Minister Parks Tau noting that official sanctions could invite challenges under World Trade Organisation rules, a risk Colombia, notably, has so far absorbed without formal dispute.
The persistence of South Africa’s coal exports to Israel, despite diplomatic opposition, is rooted in the mining sector’s critical economic role. Mining contributes approximately 6.1% to the national GDP and is the engine for nearly 45% of the country’s total exports, with coal being a key commodity. Furthermore, the sector is a vital employment anchor, directly supporting around 475,000 jobs, a crucial factor in an economy with unemployment exceeding 32%.
This trade dynamic is also shaped by the structure of the industry itself. Unlike states with nationalised resources, South Africa’s mining sector is dominated by large private corporations. The government’s limited direct ownership means it has less control over commercial export decisions than is commonly perceived, creating a divergence between state diplomacy and private sector trade imperatives.
South Africa’s current contradictory position, vocally opposing Israel diplomatically while increasing coal exports, is rooted in a complex historical relationship that has cycled between close alliance and deep estrangement. During the apartheid era, the two internationally isolated states formed a strong strategic and military partnership, fostering robust commercial ties in commodities like coal and diamonds. While the post-apartheid government reversed course politically to champion the Palestinian cause, severing the diplomatic warmth, the underlying commercial channels and trade relationships never fully dissolved, creating a resilient economic undercurrent that now facilitates the current surge in trade despite the stark diplomatic rift.
The South Africa-Israel coal trade operates within a constrained and evolving market reality. Israel’s plan to phase out coal by 2027 makes this a short-term opportunity, while global supply shifts with Russian and Colombian coal exiting the market have positioned South Africa as a logical alternative supplier. However, this commercial gain is tempered by intense domestic pressure and ethical scrutiny, as activists protest the trade and accuse the state of hypocrisy. The government navigates a precarious legal tightrope, avoiding formal trade sanctions to prevent WTO disputes while pursuing diplomatic opposition against Israel through international courts.
For South Africa, the situation highlights a complex clash between commercial sovereignty, economic pragmatism, and diplomatic principle. The state has limited direct control over large private mining firms, whose exports provide critical revenue and jobs for a struggling economy. This has led to an attempted compromise: maintaining trade engagement while championing legal opposition to Israel on the global stage. Yet, this model of separating commerce from diplomacy faces public skepticism and is inherently temporary, underscoring the urgent need for South Africa to diversify its economy and align with the global green transition.
Ultimately, the coal trade embodies South Africa’s broader crossroads, where moral aspirations meet pressing economic realities. The revenue offers a finite reprieve but also challenges the consistency of the nation’s foreign policy. Moving forward, South Africa must channel such contested earnings into building a more resilient and diversified economic base, reconciling the blurred lines between principle, survival, and long-term sustainability in an interconnected world.
