Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the world’s promise to stabilise the climate is faltering. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in its Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, delivered a stark verdict: global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions remain far too weak, and the world is heading toward catastrophic levels of warming. The report underscores that “continued collective inaction” has put the global temperature goal at serious risk, with current trends pointing to a warming trajectory of between 2.5°C and 2.8°C this century.
The 2025 report comes at a critical moment: the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement and a year that was supposed to mark a new cycle of more ambitious national climate pledges. Instead, UNEP finds that only about one-third of countries that signed the Agreement have submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by the September 2025 deadline. These pledges cover just 63 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a clear indication that global ambition is faltering even as climate impacts worsen.
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Despite incremental progress in renewable energy deployment and emission-reduction pledges, UNEP concludes that the world is still missing the mark. According to Inger Andersen, UNEP’s Executive Director, “Nations have had three attempts to hit the mark with their Paris Agreement pledges, and each time they have landed off target. We still need unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, in an ever-compressing timeframe.”
Global greenhouse gas emissions climbed to a record 57.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e) in 2024, an increase of 2.3 per cent over 2023 levels. This rise is significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of 0.6 per cent seen during the 2010s and mirrors the faster increases of the early 2000s.
While fossil fuel combustion remains the dominant source of emissions, the 2025 report highlights an alarming surge in deforestation and land-use change. Emissions from land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) increased by 21 per cent in 2024 and accounted for 53 per cent of the overall increase in global emissions. UNEP attributes this rise partly to adverse climatic conditions, particularly in tropical regions where forest loss has accelerated. Fossil fuel-related CO₂ emissions also rose by 1.1 per cent, responsible for 36 per cent of the overall increase.
At the same time, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reached 423.9 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, the highest level ever recorded. Methane and nitrous oxide concentrations also continued to rise, further amplifying the greenhouse effect.
A World Still Off Track
UNEP’s findings make clear that, even with existing pledges, the world remains on a perilous path. If all countries were to fully implement their current unconditional NDCs, global warming would still reach around 2.5°C, while the more optimistic scenario of full implementation of conditional NDCs (those reliant on external finance or support) would only lower warming to 2.3°C. Under policies currently in place, warming could rise to as high as 2.8°C.
The report reveals that the G20 nations, excluding the African Union, continue to dominate the emissions landscape, contributing 77 per cent of total global emissions in 2024. Within this group, only the European Union managed to record a decrease in emissions. The largest absolute increases were observed in India and China, while Indonesia recorded the fastest relative growth. By contrast, the European Union was the only major emitter to demonstrate measurable declines.
Seven G20 members have submitted new mitigation targets for 2035, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Three others, China, the European Union, and Türkiye, have announced their targets. Collectively, these new pledges would cut 2035 emissions by approximately 4 GtCO₂e below 2030 levels if fully implemented. However, the imminent withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement in early 2026 will erase a significant share of this progress.
In practice, the pace of emission reduction is far from sufficient. To align with the 1.5°C target, global emissions in 2030 must fall to 36 GtCO₂e, and to 25 GtCO₂e by 2035. Under current trajectories, emissions are projected to reach 53 GtCO₂e by 2030 and 48 GtCO₂e by 2035. This leaves an emissions gap of about 20 GtCO₂e in 2030 and 23 GtCO₂e in 2035 relative to the 1.5°C pathway, gaps that UNEP describes as “alarmingly large.”
Rising Temperature and Shrinking Time
The world is fast running out of time to avoid breaching the 1.5°C limit. UNEP warns that the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5°C within the next decade. The challenge, therefore, is no longer to prevent overshoot but to ensure that any breach of the 1.5°C threshold is temporary and minimal.
Limiting overshoot to around 0.3°C with a two-thirds probability would require slashing global emissions by 26 per cent by 2030 and 46 per cent by 2035, relative to 2019 levels. Failure to act immediately will lock in high-carbon infrastructure, increase adaptation costs, and heighten dependence on risky carbon dioxide removal technologies. UNEP estimates that for every 0.1°C of temperature reduction, the world would need to remove and store the equivalent of five years of current annual global CO₂ emissions, a daunting and uncertain prospect.
Africa’s Paradox: Low Emissions, High Vulnerability
The continent contributes less than 4 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions yet faces some of the most severe climate impacts. The report’s warning that every fraction of a degree matters carries particular weight for Africa, where livelihoods are increasingly at the mercy of erratic rainfall, extreme heat, and rising sea levels.
The surge in deforestation-related emissions identified in the report is particularly relevant to Africa. Forest loss across the Congo Basin, West Africa, and parts of East Africa is not only undermining biodiversity but also eroding one of the world’s most important carbon sinks. UNEP’s data suggests that land-use change and forestry emissions now play a decisive role in global emission growth, a trend that places Africa at the intersection of vulnerability and responsibility for global mitigation efforts.
Furthermore, Africa’s development ambitions are constrained by limited access to climate finance and technology. Many African countries’ NDCs remain conditional upon the delivery of external funding that has not been fulfilled. The report calls for a “redesign of the international financial architecture” to support developing nations in achieving both mitigation and adaptation goals. Without this, the pathway to net-zero emissions will remain inequitable and unfeasible for the world’s poorest nations.
Africa’s Emerging Climate Leadership
Despite these challenges, Africa’s response to the climate crisis demonstrates both resilience and innovation. Across the continent, countries are investing in low-carbon transitions that could serve as global models for sustainable development. Kenya now generates over 80 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources, including geothermal and wind energy. Morocco’s Noor Ouarzazate complex remains one of the largest concentrated solar power plants in the world. Rwanda has declared its ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century, and Egypt continues to expand its solar capacity in the deserts of Benban.
South Africa, historically one of the continent’s largest emitters due to coal dependence, is implementing a Just Energy Transition Partnership with international partners to pivot toward cleaner power sources. These initiatives show that African countries are not merely victims of the climate crisis; they are emerging as laboratories of climate solutions.
Financing Justice and Equity
UNEP’s 2025 report reiterates that effective climate action depends on fairness and global solidarity. While the G20 nations account for over three-quarters of global emissions, many developing countries, particularly in Africa, remain locked out of the financial systems necessary to fund meaningful climate action.
The report highlights that achieving the 1.5°C goal will demand a “massive increase in support to developing countries.” It calls for a restructuring of international financial systems to make climate finance accessible, predictable, and equitable. The absence of such reform, UNEP warns, risks perpetuating a global system where those least responsible for emissions continue to suffer the most devastating impacts.
A Call to Action
The Emissions Gap Report 2025 is not merely an account of failure; it is a rallying cry for immediate, transformative action. UNEP insists that limiting global warming remains technically possible, but only if countries act now. Immediate implementation of conditional NDCs could reduce projected warming by 0.5°C, and full achievement of all net-zero pledges could cut another 0.4°C. These fractions of a degree could mean the difference between survival and collapse for millions of people, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions like Africa.
For the continent, the report’s message is unmistakable. Africa must continue to demand accountability from the world’s largest emitters while leading by example through innovation and adaptation. As UNEP’s Inger Andersen reminds world leaders, “Climate action is not philanthropy, it is national self-interest.”
The world stands off target and on borrowed time. The 2025 report makes it clear that delay is no longer an option. For Africa and the global community alike, the choice is between decisive action today or an unthinkable future tomorrow.
