Nigeria and South Africa—Africa’s two largest economies—are once again at a defining moment in their relationship. Historically shaped by conflict, cooperation, and competition, the partnership between Abuja and Pretoria has often mirrored the broader trajectory of the African continent itself. Today, as global energy markets shift and Africa’s development imperatives deepen, both nations are seeking to rebalance their economic relations by looking beyond oil and gas.
The push for diversification is not simply about trade figures. It represents an effort to reshape Africa’s economic architecture, build resilience, and project continental strength in an era where narratives around Africa are rapidly evolving.
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Nigeria’s role in South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle cannot be overstated. From funding the African National Congress (ANC) to providing scholarships and diplomatic cover, Nigeria positioned itself as a “frontline ally,” even though it was geographically far from Southern Africa. This solidarity laid the foundation for post-apartheid cooperation.
By 1999, both countries had institutionalised ties through the Bi-National Commission (BNC), which was intended to balance political and economic engagement. However, trade patterns quickly revealed asymmetry: while South African companies, such as MTN, Shoprite, and Multichoice, flourished in Nigeria, few Nigerian firms managed to establish a similar foothold in South Africa. The imbalance was stark—Nigeria exported crude oil, while South Africa exported finished goods and services.
This history of uneven exchange has often fueled perceptions of rivalry, yet it also underscores the vast potential for complementary growth if cooperation is properly managed.
Comparative Analysis: Divergent Strengths, Shared Potential
Nigeria and South Africa embody contrasting economic models that, when combined, could serve as the twin engines of Africa’s prosperity.
• Nigeria: A resource-rich nation with a young, entrepreneurial population. Its economy has been dominated by crude oil exports, but its vast arable land, booming tech ecosystem, and cultural industries (Nollywood, Afrobeats) offer untapped diversification potential.
• South Africa: Africa’s most industrialised economy, with advanced mining, finance, manufacturing, and logistics sectors. It offers infrastructure and technical expertise but grapples with slower demographic growth and structural inequalities.
The imbalance lies in execution: South African firms have leveraged Nigeria’s consumer market, while Nigerian companies face entry barriers in South Africa’s protectionist environment. Rebalancing requires dismantling these obstacles and building reciprocal pathways for expansion.
The Shift Beyond Oil and Gas
Recent engagements reflect this new thinking. Nigerian officials, led by Acting High Commissioner Alexander Temitope Ajayi, have emphasised non-oil diversification as the foundation of future ties. Areas identified include:
• Mining: Nigeria seeks South Africa’s expertise to unlock its underutilised solid minerals sector, critical for the global energy transition.
• Agriculture: Both countries aim to boost food security through cross-investments and technology transfers.
• Technology and Digital Economies: From fintech to telecoms, cross-border collaboration can build continental champions.
• Cultural and Creative Industries: Nollywood collaborations, Afrobeats’ penetration of South Africa, and rising people-to-people ties offer soft power dividends.
The forthcoming G20 high-level summit on industrialisation and agriculture further underlines the intent to position both countries as standard-bearers for Africa’s structural transformation.
The significance of Nigeria-South Africa relations transcends bilateral ties. Together, these economies account for nearly two-thirds of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. When they collaborate, Africa speaks with weight. When they clash, the continent risks fragmentation.
1. Pan-African Trade: A more balanced Nigeria-South Africa partnership strengthens the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), creating competitive value chains across borders.
2. Resource Sovereignty: Collaboration in mining and critical minerals could prevent exploitative external dominance and allow Africa to capture more value from its resources.
3. Cultural Diplomacy: The merging of Nollywood’s storytelling power with South Africa’s creative industries amplifies Africa’s soft power globally.
4. Youth Empowerment: Cross-sector investments create jobs for Africa’s young population, reducing unemployment and migration pressures.
5. Geopolitical Leverage: A united Nigeria-South Africa bloc enhances Africa’s bargaining power in forums like the G20, BRICS, and the UN.
Rebalancing will not be automatic. Nigeria must overcome structural weaknesses in the ease of doing business, while South Africa must dismantle barriers that stifle Nigerian firms. Trust-building mechanisms, such as the proposed early-warning MoU to protect Nigerian nationals in South Africa, are vital to sustain goodwill.
Moreover, both countries must avoid zero-sum competition for continental leadership. The path forward lies in cooperation over rivalry, leveraging their strengths to serve as complementary anchors for Africa’s development.
The Nigeria-South Africa relationship is more than bilateral diplomacy—it is a litmus test for Africa’s ability to integrate, industrialise, and thrive in a shifting global order. By looking beyond oil and embracing new frontiers of collaboration, both countries can rebalance their ties in ways that uplift not just themselves, but the entire continent.
In the words of MTN’s Dominic Khumalo, these “twin engines of Africa’s prosperity” must fuel not only their own growth but also the collective rise of Africa. The future, then, is not Nigeria or South Africa—it is Nigeria with South Africa, for Africa.
