At a time when the world is grappling with the twin imperatives of energy security and climate transition, Mozambique’s beleaguered LNG megaproject stands at a crossroads. With global demand for natural gas rising, especially in Asia and among European markets seeking alternatives to Russian supply, the revival of the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project promises both strategic opportunity and outsized risk. Yet for Mozambique, the stakes are existential: the potential for national revenue, industrial development, and geopolitical relevance is substantial, but the hazards from instability, environmental harm, and social exclusion are equally stark.
In August 2025, the President of Mozambique announced that construction on TotalEnergies’ LNG project would resume by September, targeting first gas delivery between 2029 and 2030. This move followed governmental measures to “establish the conditions” conducive to restart, according to the energy minister. India’s state-run Oil India, which holds a stake in the project, expects development to recommence by year-end 2025. TotalEnergies, for its part, has said that it is preparing alignment among partners, security measures, and financing to re-activate work.
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International backing has also re-emerged. In March 2025, the U.S. Export-Import Bank reapproved a $4.7 billion loan that had previously been committed before the project’s 2021 suspension. Such finance is critical, given that much of the project’s cost, reportedly $20 billion, must be drawn from external debt markets.
The project’s engineering blueprint envisions a two-train liquefaction facility, with an expected output capacity in the realm of 13.1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). Partners include Japanese firm Mitsui (20 %), Mozambique’s own ENH (15 %), and a consortium of Indian state firms, ONGC Videsh, Oil India, Bharat Petroleum, which hold about 30 % collectively.
For Mozambique, the renewed LNG push offers a gateway to reshape its economic trajectory. The country has long been resource-endowed but institutionally fragile; hydrocarbons may deliver an infusion of foreign currency, public investment, and industrial capacity. Analysts expect the project to bolster state revenues, enhance energy access, and improve Mozambique’s bargaining position in regional energy corridors.
The location matters, too. The project lies in Cabo Delgado province, where natural gas discoveries in offshore basins were first reported in the early 2010s. The Rovuma Basin (especially “Area 1” and “Area 4”) is estimated to contain many tens of trillions of cubic feet (Tcf) of gas reserves. In Area 4 alone, resource estimates have ranged as high as 85 Tcf.
These reserves could propel Mozambique into global LNG markets, delivering to India, China, Europe, and potentially powering domestic gas-to-power projects. Indeed, one envisaged outcome is that the infrastructure and revenue from LNG exports might help finance electrification and industrialisation across Mozambique’s hinterlands.
Yet the very scale and nature of this project expose fault lines. TotalEnergies’ megaproject has already experienced creeping cost overruns and delays. Reports allege that misalignment among contractors and repeated security disruptions have inflated expenditures. The question is whether projected future revenues will be realised, and to what degree they reach communities rather than being siphoned off by rent-seeking elites.
Security Shadows over Afungi
One cannot discuss the project’s revival without confronting the intense security challenges in Cabo Delgado. Since 2017, the region has endured a brutal insurgency, linked to extremist networks, which has displaced hundreds of thousands, destroyed livelihoods, and driven away investment.
The 2021 attack on Palma (the town proximate to the Afungi site), which left scores dead and prompted a force majeure declaration, is perhaps the most infamous event. In response, TotalEnergies withdrew personnel and suspended construction entirely.
As the restart unfolds, security assurances have become central. Reports indicate that ExxonMobil’s CEO recently pressed Mozambique’s president for guarantees over a rival LNG project, and discussions also encompassed the TotalEnergies site. To shore up stability, Rwandan troops are expected to assist Mozambique’s security forces in guarding the Afungi complex. The Afungi enclave is likely to be heavily fortified; some accounts suggest land access will be strictly controlled, with supplies, materials, and personnel arriving by sea or air only.
But risks linger. A militarised enclave may exacerbate resentment among locals, intensifying a perception of exclusion. Some analysts warn that if violence persists elsewhere in Cabo Delgado while the LNG site remains insulated, it will underscore a disconnect between state priorities and community needs. Moreover, security operations themselves can carry human rights hazards; allegations of abuses by security forces in prior episodes have already drawn scrutiny.
One recent report states that TotalEnergies’ CEO asked for alignment on security and reiterated that construction would resume only once conditions are met. That stepwise, cautious approach may be necessary, but the margin for error is small.
Environmental and Social Trade-offs
Beyond security, the project is under fire from environmentalists who warn of its climate and social fallout. Critics label the LNG development a “carbon bomb,” projecting lifecycle emissions of 3.3 to 4.5 billion tonnes of CO₂, a figure that rivals or exceeds the annual emissions of many industrialised nations. Such emissions raise profound questions about the alignment of large fossil fuel ventures with global net-zero goals and climate justice.
Local communities may bear the heavier burden. The Afungi site’s strict security perimeter may restrict access, severing ties between the workforce enclave and the surrounding economy. Some locals fear that labour, procurement, and service contracts will be imported, leaving little for local small businesses. Tension lies in how value is shared: if the project’s economic gains accrue largely to foreign firms, the state, and elites, while locals face displacement or environmental degradation, legitimacy could erode.
Additionally, ecological disruption is a real prospect. Coastal, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems could be affected by dredging, gas flaring, pipeline construction, and increased marine traffic. Mozambique’s coastline includes sensitive wetlands, mangroves, fisheries and biodiversity hotspots. Proper environmental impact mitigation and monitoring will be indispensable — and hard to police in a conflict-affected region.
Navigating the Global Energy Transition Paradox
Mozambique’s relaunch occurs in a moment of tension: expanding fossil fuel capacity sits uneasily within a global architecture pushing rapidly toward decarbonisation. European and Asian buyers remain interested in transitional fuels; yet investment banks, insurers, and development funds are increasingly averse to carbon-intensive projects.
TotalEnergies is thus caught in a balancing act. It must persuade financiers, host governments, and local stakeholders that this LNG project is not a stranded asset on a warming planet. In that sense, the reapproval of U.S. financing is both welcome and politically volatile: NGOs have criticised the loan restart amid climate and human rights concerns.
Meanwhile, Mozambique itself is making parallel bets on renewable energy: its hydropower roots, solar development, and wind prospects are part of a diversified energy-future ambition. But scaling them to fully substitute fossil fuels remains years distant, making gas a tempting bridge fuel for domestic development.
A Test of Vision, Governance, and Resilience
The relaunch of TotalEnergies’ LNG megaproject in Mozambique is not merely a corporate manoeuvre. It is a national gamble. If successful, it could reshape Mozambique’s economic identity, anchor energy exports, and lift living standards. Yet success depends on more than geology and engineering: it depends on security, governance, local inclusion, and environmental care.
The project’s strongest adversaries may be those it bets least on the insurgents, the locals, climate advocates, and sceptical financiers. If security is mismanaged, if promises to communities are broken, or if environmental damage spirals, the costs may overshadow gains. But if the state, companies, and civil society forge trust, accountability, and shared benefit, the relaunch could mark a new chapter for Mozambique in the global energy map.
