Nigeria’s streaming market is set for remarkable growth. Over-the-top video, delivered over the internet rather than through traditional broadcast or pay-TV, is forecast to grow faster than any other national OTT video market through 2030. PwC projects a 20.4% compound annual growth rate, with revenue climbing from $31 million in 2025 to $78 million in 2030. By then, subscriptions are expected to reach 1.6 million, with average revenue per subscription at $42.
The projected average revenue per subscription in Nigeria is $42 by 2030, far below the global average of over $100 and lower than South Africa ($76) and Kenya ($54). This gap reflects local purchasing power and means Nigerian platforms must rely on lower-priced plans, mobile-first access, advertising, and bundles. Subscriber growth alone will not guarantee revenue per customer; providers must balance affordability against content rights, production, marketing, and delivery costs.
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Nigeria’s smartphone ownership has risen to 75% according to a KPMG/Orange study, up from 64% in 2023, with Android dominating at 96% of devices. However, NCC data presents a lower figure: smartphone ownership stands at about 27%, while mobile broadband coverage reaches 90% of the population. The discrepancy reflects different methodologies, but both point to a large population with mobile internet access as the primary gateway to streaming. WhatsApp is installed on 95% of surveyed smartphones, and fintech apps like OPay reach 69% penetration, demonstrating the mobile-first behaviour that streaming services must accommodate.
Nigeria’s internet consumption reached 1.76 million terabytes in August 2026, a 5.68% monthly increase, while mobile internet subscriptions grew only 0.5%. This divergence shows that existing users are consuming more data-intensive services, including video streaming. Broadband penetration reached 58.22% in August, up from 57.40% in July. The NCC has warned that data demand is outpacing network growth, with smartphone ownership at 27% and broadband penetration at 57.4% against a 70% target. Streaming growth will depend on whether infrastructure investment keeps pace.
Nigeria’s film and television industry contributes over $6 billion annually to the economy and supports more than one million jobs, according to filmmaker Rogba Arimoro. Nollywood’s production ecosystem provides streaming platforms with a route to distinctive local content that can travel across Africa and the diaspora. In 2025, Nollywood films accounted for 49.4% of total box office revenue, narrowly ahead of Hollywood’s 48.8%, demonstrating strong audience loyalty to local productions. Streaming platforms can extend the commercial life of these productions beyond theatrical release.
The theatrical market provides context for streaming’s opportunity. Nigeria’s box office is projected to reach N20 billion in 2026, up from N15.64 billion in 2025, driven by higher ticket prices rather than audience growth. Average ticket prices rose from N2,824 in 2023 to a projected N6,800 in 2026, while admissions are forecast at only 2.95 million. This suggests that cinema is becoming a premium experience for a minority, leaving a much larger population dependent on streaming or other digital formats for video entertainment.
The $42 ARPU projection points to the importance of advertising-supported viewing and mobile bundles. Data bundles that include streaming access can reduce upfront costs for viewers and help platforms reach customers. However, bundling only works if revenue is shared sustainably among operators, platforms, and content owners. Lower-cost plans can widen access, but discounted subscriptions may not cover content and distribution costs unless the service reaches sufficient scale. Providers will need to test pricing against actual household budgets rather than assuming global models transfer unchanged.
Nigeria’s market can support services tailored to local audiences, but streaming businesses face high fixed costs in technology, content rights, production, and marketing. Regional expansion can spread those costs across more subscribers, but requires navigating different languages, payment systems, regulations, and consumer preferences. The Nigerian forecast is relevant beyond Nigeria: it shows the potential of a large local market while illustrating why cross-border distribution matters. AfCFTA’s framework for trade integration could support this expansion, but practical implementation customs, standards, and regulatory consistency- remains essential.
If platforms compete for distinctive Nigerian content, producers may gain new sources of commissions and licensing revenue. Yet a larger number of deals does not automatically mean better terms for creators. Transparent contracts, reliable payment, and clear ownership of intellectual property will determine whether growth builds a stronger production industry or concentrates value in distributors. The projected increase from $31 million to $78 million is a signal of opportunity, but it does not guarantee that every platform will be profitable or that every creator will benefit.
Nigeria’s OTT outlook matters for Africa because it links telecommunications, film and television production, advertising, payments, and digital commerce. If those parts grow together, streaming can strengthen the market for African intellectual property and create a larger, more connected audience for local stories. But the decisive measure will not be the growth rate alone.
It will be whether the projected revenue translates into affordable access, sustained investment in African content, and a fair share of value for the people who create it. Fast growth from a small base is not the same as mass adoption; the conditions for lasting growth affordable data, compelling local content, reliable distribution, and fair creator compensation remain the test.
