Africa’s renewable energy transition is increasingly being shaped not only by large power plants, but also by households and businesses generating electricity for their own use. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2026 report identifies this shift as a major driver of the continent’s clean power expansion, with distributed solar expected to account for nearly two-thirds of new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in sub-Saharan Africa between 2026 and 2031.
The IEA forecasts that global renewable electricity capacity will grow by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) over the period. Within sub-Saharan Africa, the renewable capacity forecast has been revised upwards by 54 per cent, or 33 GW, compared with last year’s outlook. Almost all this upward revision comes from distributed solar, whose forecast has increased by 42 GW. By contrast, utility-scale solar has been revised downwards by nearly 7 GW, reflecting financing difficulties, offtaker risks and inadequate transmission infrastructure.
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This adjustment signals a significant change in how renewable energy is developing across the region. Rather than depending exclusively on large grid-connected projects, more consumers are turning to rooftop, commercial and off-grid solar systems to address unreliable electricity supply, high tariffs and rising diesel costs. The IEA identifies Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya among the leading markets for this consumer-driven expansion.
The scale of the opportunity is particularly evident in off-grid solar. The agency expects sub-Saharan Africa to install more than 21 GW of additional off-grid solar capacity between 2026 and 2031, approximately equivalent to the region’s current installed off-grid capacity. These systems can provide households, businesses and communities with electricity without waiting for conventional grid extensions, although their affordability, maintenance and ability to meet different levels of demand remain important considerations.
South Africa continues to dominate the region’s utility-scale solar outlook, accounting for 48 per cent of projected additions. Its procurement programmes, corporate power purchase agreements and arrangements allowing private generators to use the national grid support investment. Elsewhere, Kenya, Namibia and Senegal are advancing through dedicated procurement rounds and other support mechanisms, while development finance and government-led projects underpin activity in Nigeria, Ghana and Angola.
However, the expansion of distributed solar does not remove the need for large-scale generation. Industrial development, urbanisation and growing populations require electricity systems capable of delivering power consistently and at scale. The IEA identifies weak grid infrastructure, transmission bottlenecks, uncertain procurement arrangements and financially constrained utilities as continuing obstacles to utility-scale projects. These challenges are particularly significant in South Africa and Nigeria.
The measurement of solar growth presents another challenge. Ember, an energy think tank, estimated that Africa installed 12 GW of solar capacity in 2025, compared with the IEA’s estimate of 6.2 GW. Ember subsequently projected that installations could reach 17 GW in 2026, representing a 45 per cent increase. The difference reflects, in part, the difficulty of tracking smaller systems that are not connected to national grids or consistently captured in official statistics. Ember’s estimates use Chinese solar-panel export data and a separate methodology, so the figures should not be treated as directly interchangeable with official capacity records.
The wider electricity-access challenge makes these developments especially important. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for more than 560 million people without electricity, representing the overwhelming majority of the global access deficit. The World Bank and other international agencies have also highlighted the growing rural access gap, with the number of rural residents without electricity in the region rising from 376 million in 2010 to 447 million in 2024. Distributed solar can help address this shortfall, but access must be accompanied by affordability, reliable equipment and services that can support productive activities.
Financing remains central to the transition. The IEA has previously estimated that Africa attracts only about 3 per cent of global energy investment, despite accounting for roughly one-fifth of the world’s population. It has also highlighted the higher cost of capital for African energy projects, which can be two to three times that in advanced economies. Currency exposure, utility creditworthiness, debt pressures and uncertain revenue arrangements continue to influence whether projects secure financing.
Regional electricity trade offers another opportunity to strengthen supply. The World Bank’s US$12 million RETRADE SAPP programme supports technical assistance and institutional capacity across the Southern African Power Pool, which comprises 12 member countries. In East Africa, the Ethiopia–Kenya Electricity Highway, a 2,000 MW transmission interconnector, has been operational since 2022, enabling cross-border electricity trade. Such infrastructure can help countries share available generation, improve system flexibility and make better use of renewable resources.
The IEA’s 2026 outlook points to a stronger period of renewable expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, led overwhelmingly by solar. Yet forecasts should not be mistaken for completed projects or electricity delivered to consumers. The real test will be whether governments, utilities and investors can build the infrastructure, financing arrangements and regulatory frameworks needed to turn additional capacity into dependable power.
For Africa, the objective must extend beyond installing more solar panels. It is to develop electricity systems that support households, strengthen businesses, attract industrial investment and widen access to economic opportunity. Distributed solar is becoming an important part of that ambition, but its long-term value will depend on how effectively it works alongside stronger national grids and interconnected regional power markets.
